Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT)

• Price fell from $1.666 to $1.471, ending 24 hours at $1.54, indicating bearish momentum.
• Volume surged during the early dip, confirming bearish sentiment and strong selling pressure.
• RSI and Bollinger Band contraction suggest a potential oversold bounce may occur near $1.47–$1.50.
• Price action shows multiple breakdowns below key support levels, with no clear short-term resistance.
• Turnover increased sharply during the downward leg, signaling active risk-off positioning.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $1.633 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.540 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The price reached a high of $1.666 and a low of $1.471 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 6,716,988.86 FIL, while the total notional turnover was $10,265,786.00 in FILUSDT.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours revealed a strong bearish bias with multiple breakdowns below key support levels. A clear descending channel is forming, with a trendline connecting recent highs at $1.666, $1.655, and $1.646, while the lower boundary is defined by lows at $1.620, $1.571, and $1.471. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $1.640 on 17:00 ET, followed by a strong rejection at $1.471. This level appears to be a significant psychological and Fibonacci (61.8% retracement) support from a prior bullish leg.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, with price currently well below both. This reinforces the bearish momentum. The 50-period average is at $1.570, while the 20-period is at $1.585, creating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are also bearish, with price continuing to trade below all three, indicating continued bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price continues to fall. RSI has dropped below 30, reaching a low of 27.8 at $1.471, indicating oversold conditions. However, this does not guarantee an immediate bounce, as bearish momentum remains strong. RSI is currently at 39.6, suggesting that the market is still in a bearish consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the downward move from $1.666 to $1.471, with the lower Bollinger Band at $1.465–$1.480 offering potential support. Price has been trading near the lower boundary of the bands for most of the 24-hour period, indicating a period of high volatility and bearish bias. A breakout above the middle band could signal a short-term reversal, but given the depth of the recent sell-off, a bounce is more likely to test the $1.53–$1.55 range before resuming the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical sell-off from $1.650 to $1.471, with a high-volume bar at $1.530 confirming the breakdown. However, volume has subsequently decreased as the price consolidates near $1.54, suggesting that the immediate selling pressure may be waning. Notional turnover also peaked at $1.2M during the $1.530 breakdown, indicating strong bearish conviction at that level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent bearish leg from $1.666 to $1.471, key levels at $1.560 (38.2%) and $1.526 (61.8%) are critical. The price is currently consolidating near $1.540, slightly above the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce toward $1.560–$1.580. A break below $1.471 could see further retest of $1.442, the 78.6% retracement level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI has recently hit oversold conditions, a backtesting strategy using RSI(14) < 30 as a signal for a potential short-term bounce could be explored. If the data issue is resolved, testing the effectiveness of this signal to capture short-term bounces near key support levels (e.g., $1.471, $1.526) could provide insights into its predictive power. The current structure and volume profile suggest that a bounce from $1.471 is more likely to be shallow and short-lived, especially if the broader trend remains bearish.