Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT)

• Price dropped from 1.611 to 1.537 amid sharp selling pressure and a large 15-minute candle on 18:45 ET
• RSI (not available) may have triggered overbought conditions early before a strong correction
• Volatility spiked to 4.1% as price fell below 1.6 and Bollinger Bands expanded
• Volume surged at key turning points (18:45 ET and 04:15 ET), aligning with price declines
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:45 ET as 1.621 was abandoned in favor of 1.564

Price Movement and Key Levels

The 24-hour period for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) began at 1.611 on October 29, 16:00 ET, with a high of 1.64 at 18:15 ET and a low of 1.505 at 04:15 ET. The pair closed at 1.537 as of 12:00 ET on October 30, reflecting a bearish trend. Total volume reached 13,348,707.03 FIL with a notional turnover of $20,444,629. A sharp sell-off occurred at 18:45 ET, where a large candle moved price from 1.621 to 1.564, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This was followed by continued bearish momentum, suggesting a loss of control near key psychological and Fibonacci levels.

Support and Resistance Structure

The 1.537 level appears to be a strong short-term support area, confirmed by a bounce following the October 30 early morning dip. Immediate resistance lies at 1.564–1.565, where price previously stalled during a rally after the 04:15 ET low. A larger bullish rejection zone exists at 1.600–1.605, which had been tested multiple times but failed to hold. The 1.630–1.640 area could act as a long-term resistance if bulls reclaim control.

Trend and Volatility Dynamics

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish trend, with multiple crossovers of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirming the downtrend. Volatility expanded significantly during the 18:45–04:15 ET window, with Bollinger Bands widening and price hovering near the lower band most of the time. This suggests a high degree of bearish momentum and a potential continuation of the move downward. However, volatility contraction could emerge once price stabilizes near the 1.537–1.545 range.

Momentum and Indicators

While RSI values could not be retrieved for FILUSDT, the price action and volume patterns suggest that overbought conditions likely occurred around 1.64 and 1.637. MACD likely showed a bearish crossover during the 18:45–19:00 ET period, aligning with the large bearish candle. The divergence between price and volume suggests strong distribution at key levels, particularly around 1.560 and 1.550. A test of 1.537 in the next 24 hours could confirm or reject this as a valid support level.

Fibonacci Retracements and Entry Clues

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute move from 1.64 to 1.505, key retracement levels include 1.546 (38.2%), 1.555 (50%), and 1.564 (61.8%). These levels appear to have acted as temporary supports or resistances, with price bouncing around these points. On the daily chart, a retracement of the broader move from 1.64 to 1.475 could see the 1.550–1.560 zone as a potential turning point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of RSI data from the current data source, a potential backtest strategy could involve using local RSI calculations from historical OHLCV data if provided (Option B). A possible hypothesis is to go long on FILUSDT when price crosses above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI exits oversold territory (<30), with a stop-loss below the recent swing low. Conversely, a short entry could be triggered when RSI enters overbought territory (>70) and price breaks below a 15-minute candle’s low. These signals could be tested against a historical dataset to assess profitability and drawdowns.