Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price dipped to 1.555 before a sharp 3.4% rebound to 1.605 by 12:00 ET.
• Volume surged over 596k FIL at 21:15 ET as price tested key support.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD turned positive.
• 200SMA provided dynamic floor; price closed above 1.565.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 1.616 on 2025-10-28 at 16:00 ET and closed at 1.600 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.644 and a low of 1.555. Total volume traded was approximately 6.6 million FIL, with a notional turnover of ~$10.7 million. The session was marked by a large bearish candle at the open followed by a robust recovery from the 1.555 support level.

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish thrust early in the session, with a large red candle closing at 1.596 at 19:30 ET. This was followed by a 2.6% rebound over the next 3 hours, with price retesting 1.565, a level that had previously acted as a pivot support. The 20SMA was at 1.576, while the 50SMA sat at 1.582, suggesting that the short-term trend turned upward during the session. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200SMA levels were at 1.588, 1.579, and 1.569, respectively, indicating that the longer-term trend is still neutral to slightly bullish.

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the recovery phase, signaling growing bullish momentum, while RSI bottomed at 26 before climbing to 52 by 12:00 ET. This suggests that oversold conditions helped trigger a rebound. Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning hours, with Bollinger Bands widening as price moved between the 1.555 support and 1.644 high. The 20-period standard deviation was at 0.028, reflecting heightened uncertainty and activity.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 1.555 low to the 1.644 high placed the 50% level at 1.5995 and the 61.8% at 1.6165. Price closed near the 50% level, suggesting a potential area of consolidation. Key support levels remain at 1.555 and 1.541, with 1.555 acting as a critical floor. Resistance is likely at 1.6165 and 1.628 before testing 1.644.

Looking ahead, a close above 1.6165 could signal renewed bullish conviction, while a retest of 1.555 could trigger further volatility. Investors should watch for volume confirmation at key levels and divergence in the MACD and RSI to gauge the strength of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration involves buying FIL-USDT when a daily bullish engulfing candle appears at a support level (identified via 5-day swing lows) and exiting on the first close at or above the next resistance (5-day swing high). A 1% tolerance is used for "near support" entry conditions. Resistance-based exit rules avoid indefinite holds, with a fallback 60-trading-day time cap if the resistance is never touched. This approach seeks to exploit clear trend reversal signals at key support areas, capitalizing on the tendency of strong candlestick patterns to initiate trend changes. The method assumes that the 5-day pivot levels are sufficient to identify actionable S/R levels without overfitting. For benchmarking, performance will be compared to HOLD.P (Harbor Alpha Layering ETF) over the same period, allowing a cross-asset evaluation of strategy effectiveness.