Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) fell by ~4.7% over 24 hours amid declining volume and bearish momentum.
• A sharp break below 2.34 marked a key Fibonacci level, with price now consolidating near 2.273.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-session, confirming higher volatility, while RSI suggests oversold conditions.
• Notional turnover exceeded $20M with divergences between price and volume observed after 06:00 ET.
• A potential rebound may target 2.31–2.33, but a breakdown below 2.25 could accelerate the decline.

The FILUSDT pair opened at 2.305 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.273 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 2.418 and a low of 2.245 during the period. Total volume traded was approximately 8.58 million contracts, and with an average price of around 2.32, this implies a notional turnover of over $20.0 million. The pair experienced a sharp intraday reversal following a bullish breakout in the afternoon, which eventually collapsed into a bearish consolidation.

Support levels appear to be forming around the 2.27–2.29 range, where the price has found repeated buyers and the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converge. Resistance remains intact above 2.33, where previous bearish reversals and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior leg up coincide. A potential retest of this area could trigger renewed buying interest if volume confirms the move. A breakdown below 2.25, however, would signal a stronger bearish bias.

MACD showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with the histogram shrinking as the decline accelerated. RSI dropped into oversold territory, suggesting a possible near-term bounce, though the momentum remains fragile. Bollinger Bands widened after the morning peak and have since narrowed slightly, indicating reduced volatility in the short term. Price action remains within the lower half of the bands, reinforcing a cautious stance.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed into alignment below the price, providing a bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period line, suggesting a potential crossover that could confirm a broader downtrend. A golden cross is unlikely unless the price stabilizes above 2.34. The convergence of moving averages and Fibonacci levels between 2.27 and 2.30 offers a key decision point for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential strategy could involve a short position triggered on a close below the 2.27–2.29 support zone, with a stop-loss placed above 2.33. The target for this short would be a 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the recent 2.27–2.33 range, projected at 2.22. A backtest of this approach over the past 30 days would include checking the win rate, average gain, and risk-reward ratio. If this pattern has historically led to a consistent bearish continuation, it could offer a high-probability entry for traders anticipating further downward momentum.