Market Overview: Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-14)

• FILUSDT surged from $1.647 to $1.723 in midday ET, but retraced to close near $1.605 by 12:00 ET, forming bearish exhaustion patterns.
• Volume spiked to 1.2M FIL at 06:45 ET during the sell-off, aligning with a 1.6–1.65 Bollinger contraction.
• RSI hit overbought levels midday, followed by a sharp bearish crossover, signaling potential trend reversal.
• Price remains below the 20/50-period 15-min EMAs and the 50-day SMA, indicating bearish bias.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $1.65 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached an intraday high of $1.723 before falling to a low of $1.556. By 12:00 ET, the pair closed at $1.605 after a 24-hour volume of 11.5M FIL and a notional turnover of approximately $17.7M. The price action exhibited bearish divergences, notably during the late-night sell-off, with volume confirming the downward move.

Over the past 24 hours, FILUSDT has formed key support around $1.58–1.6, with resistance levels clustering between $1.63 and $1.65. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $1.723–1.728 in the early hours of ET, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This was followed by a series of bearish hammers and long lower shadows, indicating rejection of higher levels. Notably, a doji at $1.631 confirmed indecision and a weakening of the bullish bias.

The 20 and 50-period EMAs on the 15-min chart remain above the price, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are also bearish aligned. The 12:00 ET close at $1.605 sits within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, reflecting reduced volatility and a potential consolidation phase. RSI dipped below 30 during the 05:45–06:30 ET timeframe, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a sustained rebound.

MACD lines crossed bearishly during the mid-ET sell-off, with negative divergence emerging as price failed to reclaim the 1.65–1.66 range. The histogram showed a widening bearish momentum as the sell-off intensified. Volume spiked during the decline, particularly at the $1.6–1.63 level, where $1.584–1.599 was a high-frequency range of rejection. A divergence between volume and price emerged in the 05:45–07:00 ET period, as price dropped while volume increased, suggesting distribution from short-term holders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a key Bullish-Engulfing pattern at $1.65–1.66 (as seen in the data) and the recent bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, we propose a backtest to evaluate the performance of FILUSDT following such bullish reversal signals. The hypothesis is that a long entry on confirmation of a Bullish-Engulfing pattern, with a 3-day holding period, may yield positive returns if accompanied by above-average volume and RSI re-entry into overbought territory. This aligns with the observed behavior of the 1.66–1.67 range, where volume confirmed bullish intent.

To execute this backtest, we recommend the alternate detection workflow: fetching raw historical OHLCV data for FILUSDT, calculating the Bullish-Engulfing pattern locally, and running the 3-day performance engine. This automated approach ensures accuracy and avoids manual bias, making it ideal for evaluating recurring bullish setup efficacy in this volatile pair.