Market Overview: Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) - 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Implications

• Price dropped from $2.43 to $2.234, reflecting bearish momentum and key support testing.
• RSI approached oversold territory while MACD showed negative divergence, signaling potential bearish continuation.
• Volume surged during the downturn, confirming bearish pressure, especially after 06:15 ET.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, suggesting increased volatility.
• Fibonacci retracements aligned with price levels around $2.34–$2.35, indicating possible near-term resistance.

FILUSDT opened at $2.42 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $2.43 before closing at $2.234 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair experienced a 24-hour high of $2.43 and a low of $2.168. Total volume traded was 9,588,469.6 FIL, with turnover reaching $22,847,620.30, indicating heightened bearish activity as the price declined sharply.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $2.42–$2.401 at 16:30–16:45 ET, followed by a bearish continuation as lower lows and lower highs persisted. A doji appeared near $2.25 after 15:00 ET, hinting at indecision in the market. Key support levels were identified at $2.34 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $2.25 (61.8%), both tested during the selloff. Resistance levels at $2.39 and $2.42 showed significant rejection, especially during early recovery attempts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA remained above $2.40, highlighting the strength of the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs are expected to be near $2.38–$2.41, providing additional resistance to any short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative early in the session, with the histogram expanding downward as the selloff accelerated. The RSI dipped to 28 by 07:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, though a rebound to 38–39 did not trigger a reversal, reinforcing bearish control. The lack of a strong RSI bounce implies that short-term buyers may remain cautious.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 00:30–06:15 ET, with price dropping from $2.40 to $2.168. The Bollinger Band width increased as the price approached the lower band, confirming the bearish breakout. A contraction occurred briefly between 09:00–10:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the selloff, but the price failed to close above the mid-band, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off from 00:30–06:15 ET, with 982,128.31 FIL traded at $2.385–$2.25 alone, confirming the bearish breakout. Turnover surged in line with price action, particularly during the $2.385–$2.25 sell-off, with a positive volume-turnover correlation. No significant divergence was observed, suggesting market participants remained aligned in the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.428 to $2.168, the 61.8% level at $2.25 acted as a critical support zone. The price briefly bounced off this level before resuming the decline. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader move from $2.43 to $2.168 is at $2.25, aligning with the recent price behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and the sustained negative MACD, a backtesting strategy could be constructed using a sell signal when RSI dips below 30 and MACD line crosses below signal line. This would be complemented by a stop-loss above the 50-period SMA to manage risk. A take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could target early bounces. Given the low volatility contraction seen after 09:00 ET, a trailing stop could be initiated once the price stabilizes above $2.25, allowing for a controlled exit if the trend shows signs of reversing.