Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

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• Price opened at $2.373 and closed at $2.364, forming a bearish trend with a low of $2.353.
• A large bearish candle formed at 17:15 ET with a high of $2.405 and a low of $2.353.
• Volatility increased mid-day before narrowing toward the end of the 24-hour period.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions mid-day, now indicating moderate momentum.
• Volume spiked at key inflection points, suggesting active participation in price swings.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-03, Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $2.373 and traded between a high of $2.432 and a low of $2.353, closing at $2.364 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour volume totaled 6,094,922.97, with a notional turnover (volume × price) of approximately $14,442,420, indicating active trading and price discovery.

Structure and candlestick patterns reveal a notable bearish engulfing pattern around 17:15 ET, following a short-lived bullish push. Key support levels appear to be forming near $2.353–2.360, with resistance at $2.405–2.411. A series of doji and shrinking candles near the close suggest indecision and possible consolidation ahead.

Moving averages show a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA. On the daily chart, price remains below the 200DMA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 50DMA is now approaching the 100DMA, potentially setting up a critical confluence for near-term direction.

MACD crossed into negative territory with a bearish divergence forming, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI is currently at 49, neutral, but pulled back from overbought levels earlier in the day. This suggests a possible exhaustion of the bullish wave.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the bullish phase, then a contraction as price moved lower. The current price sits near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a possible bounce or rejection at the support level. Volatility appears to be stabilizing after the sharp drop.

Volume and turnover spiked during the bearish move from $2.405 to $2.353, confirming the strength of the decline. However, volume has since tapered off as price consolidates near support, hinting at potential exhaustion or a setup for a reversal. Price and volume appear aligned in the key moves, but divergence in the final candle suggests caution for further downside.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key 15-minute swing from $2.353 to $2.432 show 61.8% at $2.394 and 38.2% at $2.396, which corresponded with several minor bounces. On the daily chart, retracements from the major high suggest 61.8% at $2.377, near the current close, potentially confirming a consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence, a backtesting strategy could be structured around a short entry at $2.395 with a stop loss above the 50SMA at $2.405 and a target of $2.353, the previous support. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish momentum observed in the 15-minute timeframe while using the 200DMA as a longer-term exit level. Given the confirmation by volume and the alignment with key Fibonacci levels, this setup could be effective in a trending bearish environment. However, caution is warranted as the narrowing Bollinger Bands and doji candles suggest potential for a reversal or consolidation.