Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 2025-09-24 12:00 ET

• Price consolidated in a tight range, with a bearish bias post-liquidity event at 2.241.
• RSI near neutral suggests waning momentum, while volume surged during the 22:00–05:00 ET sell-off.
• Bollinger Bands constricted ahead of a breakout attempt toward 2.28–2.29.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 2.26–2.27 after the 07:30–09:00 ET recovery.

The FILUSDT pair opened at 2.278 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.296 by 15:00 ET, and closed at 2.276 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour volume stood at 3,992,811.08 FIL, with a notional turnover of $8,869,125. Price action was choppy, characterized by a liquidity collapse around 2.241, followed by a gradual rebound into overbought territory in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at 2.241 and 2.226, with resistance at 2.275 and 2.285. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 2.26–2.27 during the 04:45–06:00 ET window, suggesting short-term capitulation. A bullish engulfing pattern followed between 07:30–09:00 ET, confirming a bounce. A doji at 2.256–2.258 during the 04:45–05:00 ET period signaled indecision and foreshadowed a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed the 50-period MA to the upside after 06:30 ET, confirming a short-term recovery trend. The 50-period MA remained above the 100-period MA, suggesting medium-term bullish bias. The 200-period MA continued to serve as dynamic support above 2.26.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line after 06:30 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. However, the RSI maxed at 62 during the 11:15–13:00 ET rally and has since pulled back, suggesting price may consolidate before another attempt at 2.29. Oversold conditions were observed around 2.241, with a subsequent rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated during the 03:30–07:30 ET period, with price hovering near the upper band as high as 2.296. A contraction followed into the early morning, with price settling inside the bands around 2.276 by the close. This suggests a potential breakout attempt into the upper range in the coming 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred during the 03:30–05:45 ET sell-off, with 236,791.3 FIL traded as the price dropped to 2.226. Notional turnover rose sharply during the same period to over $500,000. Price and volume moved in alignment, confirming bearish sentiment. The rebound after 07:30 ET was supported by rising turnover, indicating conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing included 61.8% at 2.254 and 38.2% at 2.268. The 61.8% level acted as support during the early morning selloff, while the 38.2% level confirmed the bounce. Daily Fibonacci levels identified 2.26 as a key retracement point during the broader 2.226–2.296 move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages to identify bullish crossovers. Traders could initiate long positions on a breakout above 2.28, with a stop loss placed below 2.265, and a take-profit target at 2.29–2.30. The RSI near 60 suggests momentum is intact, but traders should remain cautious as overbought levels may trigger a pullback before a sustained move higher. The bullish engulfing pattern and volume confirmation support the validity of this approach.