Market Overview for EULUSDC on 2025-11-03

Summary
• Price dropped from $8.652 to $7.823, a decline of ~9.5% in 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked with large candle ranges in the early session.
• Turnover surged as price declined sharply after 20:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands signaled extreme contraction before the sell-off.
• MACD turned negative and RSI entered oversold territory near close.

Euler/USDC (EULUSDC) opened at $8.652 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.823 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of $8.674 and a low of $7.732. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 93,431.43 units, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $695,551 (calculated using weighted average price). The session was defined by a sharp, protracted selloff beginning in the early evening.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key psychological support at $8.50 and failed to rebound above it throughout the session. A long bearish candle forming at 20:15 ET marked a critical breakdown point. Doji appeared at 00:00 ET and 01:15 ET, signaling indecision amid the downward trend. A potential support zone is forming in the $7.85–$7.90 range, where price paused during the morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price well below both. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic overhead resistance, with multiple closes below it reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits above the 200-day MA, but the price is well below both, indicating a bearish trend is in place.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero at 20:30 ET and remained negative throughout the session, with bearish divergence emerging. The RSI dropped sharply to 26 by 04:15 ET, entering oversold territory. While RSI readings above 70 are considered overbought, the recent extreme reading below 30 suggests the pair may be overextended to the downside, though this does not guarantee a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the early part of the session as the pair moved down from $8.60 to $8.30. By 04:15 ET, the Bollinger Bands had contracted significantly, with price trading within a narrow range before surging lower. The current price is now near the lower band, indicating extreme bearish momentum and a potential setup for a rebound or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply from 20:15 ET onward, with several 15-minute intervals exceeding 5,000 units traded. The largest volume spike occurred at 04:15 ET, coinciding with the RSI entering oversold territory. However, price failed to rebound despite increased volume, suggesting either weak demand or strong bearish conviction. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest turnover seen in the 04:15–05:00 ET period.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 61.8% retracement level at $8.41 and fell to $8.31 before resuming lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent $8.67–$7.83 move is at $8.24, which could serve as a potential support level in the coming days. A test of this level would help assess the strength of the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest strategy would have entered a short position at 04:15 ET when RSI hit 26, with an exit expected at the next day’s close. This timing aligns with the most bearish phase of the session, where both RSI and MACD signaled overextended conditions. A revised RSI threshold could alter the entry timing, especially if the asset is prone to extended downtrends or has a different volatility profile. Clarifying the exact exchange and ticker will allow for more accurate backtesting over the full historical period.