Market Overview for Euler/USDC (EULUSDC) on 2025-11-06

Summary
• Euler/USDC traded lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows after a broad sell-off.
• Volatility picked up overnight, with a sharp pullback from 6.39 to 6.03, followed by modest recovery.
• Volume surged after 05:00 ET, but price failed to sustain gains, raising bearish divergence concerns.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but momentum remains weak as sellers appear dominant.

The EULUSDC pair opened at 6.292 on 2025-11-05 and reached a high of 6.397 before plunging to a low of 6.033. It closed at 6.028 on 2025-11-06, down 4.06%. Total 24-hour volume was 124,514.65, while total turnover stood at approximately $787,806. The price action reflects bearish exhaustion in the final stretch as volume waned and failed to confirm any rally.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key breakdown pattern after the 2025-11-05 19:00 ET candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which signaled a shift in sentiment. The pair then tested 6.20 as support, only to fall further into a critical support level near 6.03-6.05. This appears to be a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the earlier 6.39-6.23 move. A double bottom formation may be forming near 6.03, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is likely near 6.30-6.35, and the 200-day is likely near 6.40-6.45. The current price of 6.028 is well below all three, indicating a deep bearish bias. A retest of the 50- or 100-day MA could bring some short-covering or buying interest if accompanied by strong volume.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative and remains below zero, with bearish divergence visible. RSI has fallen into oversold territory below 30, which could suggest a short-term bounce is possible. However, RSI remains at a very low level without a meaningful reversal pattern, indicating a higher probability of further downside in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Price has traded near the lower band for most of the session, with a significant expansion in volatility observed during the early morning hours. A tightening of the bands after the 09:00 ET time frame may indicate a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term, though confirmation will depend on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

The most notable spike in volume occurred at 05:00 ET, as a large bullish candle tried to push price back toward 6.23 but failed to hold. The volume-to-price divergence here suggests distribution or profit-taking rather than genuine buying interest. After 09:00 ET, volume has declined while price has remained range-bound, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing from 6.39 to 6.03, the 38.2% retracement level is around 6.17-6.19, while the 61.8% level is near 6.22-6.23. The price has tested and rejected both levels in recent hours. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a recent larger move is near 6.00-6.05, where the current support is forming.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish bias and oversold RSI readings, a potential backtest strategy could involve identifying oversold RSI levels (e.g., below 30) on a 14-day RSI for EULUSDC and entering short positions at the next candle open. This approach would align with the observed exhaustion in the market and could be tested using a validated ticker (e.g., “BINANCE:EULUSDC”) from 2022-01-01 to the present. A one-day-hold exit would allow for capturing short-term bearish momentum, though confirmation of a valid ticker and RSI threshold is required to proceed.