Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN): Bearish Continuation Amid Surging Volatility

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing at 14,178 PLN after reaching a high of 14,402 PLN.
• A bearish continuation appears in place, with a 6.4% drop from the intra-day high.
• Volatility surged during the 19:45–20:00 ET session, with a 78.0 PLN move on 2.8074 ETH volume.
• The RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting potential near-term buying interest.
• Divergence in turnover and volume suggests weakening bear momentum amid falling prices.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 14,269 PLN on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at 14,178 PLN on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 14,402 PLN and a low of 14,057 PLN during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 19.9063 ETH, with a total turnover of 280,055 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of ETHPLN suggests a bearish continuation pattern over the past 24 hours. A strong bearish candle formed during the 19:45–20:00 ET session, with a high of 14,402 PLN and a close of 14,340 PLN, indicating strong selling pressure. Several bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks appeared in the latter half of the day, especially between 21:15 and 22:30 ET. A key support level was tested at 14,194 PLN multiple times, holding temporarily but eventually breaking decisively around 00:45–01:00 ET. This confirmed the bearish bias, with price dropping into the 14,155–14,187 PLN range in the early hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both declined below key price levels after 19:45 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA during the session, forming a potential death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be approaching the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential confluence of bearish alignment in the short-term trend. The 100-period MA has remained steady around 14,200–14,300 PLN, offering a rough reference for potential consolidation or reversal attempts.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 19:45–20:00 ET session, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The histogram has been declining since the intra-day high, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the RSI, the indicator reached oversold territory around 01:00–02:00 ET, with values dipping into the 25–30 range, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, the lack of strong volume during this period weakens the likelihood of a sustained reversal. Divergence between the RSI and price action during the 02:00–03:00 ET session suggests that selling pressure may still be in control.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Price action has shown significant volatility over the past 24 hours, particularly between 19:45 and 20:00 ET, when ETHPLN moved within a wide Bollinger Band range. The 15-minute chart saw the price break out of the lower band around 21:15 ET, confirming a continuation of the bearish trend. The bands have since narrowed, indicating a potential consolidation phase. Notably, the 14,194–14,178 PLN range has acted as a key support cluster, with the lower band touching around 14,155–14,170 PLN. This suggests that traders may be eyeing this level as a potential turning point.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 19:45–20:00 ET session, reaching 2.8074 ETH on that candle, the highest in the 24-hour period. This coincided with a large price drop, indicating strong selling pressure. Later, from 00:00 to 02:00 ET, volume significantly declined despite the continued price decline, signaling weakening bear momentum. Turnover also showed a similar pattern, with the largest notional value occurring during the session with the 14,402 PLN high. However, after 01:00 ET, turnover decreased sharply, suggesting that the move lower may be running out of steam.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute move from 14,402 PLN to 14,057 PLN, the 38.2% level sits at 14,268 PLN and the 61.8% level at 14,198 PLN. ETHPLN has traded through both levels over the past 24 hours, with the 14,198 PLN level acting as a temporary support. On the daily chart, the key 61.8% retracement level of the broader swing from 14,341 PLN to 14,057 PLN is around 14,228 PLN. ETHPLN appears to be consolidating near this level, with potential for a retest higher in the coming sessions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup and the importance of the MACD indicator in identifying turning points, I will proceed with the following backtest strategy: I will identify all MACD Golden Cross signals for the ETH/PLN pair from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-01. These signals will trigger simulated buys, with positions held for 7 trading days and then exited. I will then evaluate the strategy’s performance in terms of return, maximum drawdown, and risk-adjusted metrics. To proceed, I require a valid price series. If ETHPLN is not available in your preferred data source, consider using an equivalent fiat pair like ETH/USD or ETH/EUR for more accessibility. Let me know your preference so I can begin the backtest.