Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN)

• Price declined from 16,231 to 16,139, a -0.57% drop, with bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in early morning PLN trading before a sharp pullback.
• Turnover spiked during 19:00–20:00 ET, diverging from price action.
• MACD turned bearish, and RSI approached oversold territory at 30.
• 16,139 and 16,219 are key support/resistance levels ahead of the next 24 hours.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,219 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 16,332 and a low of 16,100 before closing at 16,197 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The pair traded with a total volume of 8.14 ETH and a turnover of approximately 131,690 PLN in the 24-hour period. Price action shows a bearish bias, with increasing volatility and a key swing low forming near 16,139.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish trend over the past 24 hours, with key support levels emerging around 16,139 and 16,175. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:30 ET (16,172 → 16,138), followed by a strong reversal candle at 23:30 ET (16,190 → 16,139). A bullish pinbar appeared at 04:45 ET (16,207 → 16,188), which may signal a potential bounce. A key resistance zone is forming around 16,229–16,232, which has been tested multiple times without a clear break.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is positioned slightly above the 100-period SMA, with the 200-period SMA acting as a critical long-term support at 16,160. The 50-period SMA currently sits at 16,180, indicating that any close above that level may trigger a temporary bullish bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the last 12 hours, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence from the price. RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, although this may not necessarily trigger a reversal due to the strong bearish sentiment. A rebound may occur if RSI closes above 40, but a sustained break below 25 could extend the decline toward 16,100.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened in the early part of the session, indicating increased volatility. Price has since moved toward the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce. A breakout above the upper band of 16,250 may indicate renewed buying pressure, but with volume lagging behind, it is likely to be a false move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:00–20:00 ET, with 0.7644 ETH traded during the 18:45–19:00 candle, but price continued to fall, signaling bearish divergence. Notional turnover spiked at the same time to ~12,300 PLN, yet the price continued to decline, suggesting a lack of conviction in the short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 16,332–16,100 swing, key levels include 61.8% at 16,178 and 38.2% at 16,235. Price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% level, which could either serve as a support or a temporary bounce zone. A breakdown below 16,178 would suggest a test of the 16,100 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying divergences between volume and price action during bearish consolidations. A trade signal is triggered when price makes a lower low while volume declines or stagnates, suggesting a lack of selling momentum. This aligns with the 16,139 support level, where volume dried up despite the sharp drop. A long position could be considered on a close above 16,175, with a stop loss at 16,139 and a target at 16,229. This approach is designed to capture short-term rebounds in oversold conditions, but requires confirmation from RSI and MACD.