Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 2025-09-19

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,540.0 and closed at 16,219.0, with a 24-hour high of 16,738.0 and low of 16,124.0.
• Price fell 3.14%, with high volatility observed in late trading hours, especially in the 16:00–16:30 ET period.
• Volume spiked during the 13:45–14:00 ET and 15:00–15:30 ET intervals, indicating potential short-term sentiment shifts.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions at close, while MACD turned negative, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred mid-day before a sharp expansion toward the close.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,540.0 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16,219.0 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 16,738.0 and a low of 16,124.0. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 44.1858 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately PLN 7,011,517 (calculated using closing prices). The pair displayed a clear bearish bias with multiple bearish candlestick formations and declining momentum.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed at 16,300.0 and 16,124.0, with a potential resistance area forming between 16,500.0 and 16,561.0. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:45–20:00 ET, signaling a strong reversal in momentum. A doji formed at 23:45–00:00 ET, indicating indecision in the market ahead of the overnight decline.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected bearishly during the 19:00–20:00 ET session, confirming a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a broader bearish trend in Ethereum’s price action against the Zloty.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line around 19:00–20:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI moved below 30 near the close, indicating an oversold condition, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. This divergence between RSI and price could suggest further downside is likely in the short term, though a bounce may occur if buyers step in at key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened around 16:00–17:00 ET, with the price oscillating within a narrow band. This contraction was followed by a sharp expansion during the 15:00–16:00 ET session, as the price fell below the lower band. The current price sits just above the 20-period lower band, indicating a potential test of the next support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 13:45–14:00 ET and 15:00–15:30 ET intervals, coinciding with sharp price declines. This suggests increased selling pressure and confirmation of the bearish trend. Turnover was highest during the 16:00–17:00 ET and 19:00–20:00 ET periods, reinforcing the strength of the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (16,434.0) and 61.8% (16,350.0) acted as temporary supports before the price broke below both. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous bullish swing was at 16,200.0, which the price tested near the close. A break below that could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 50-period MA as a dynamic support/resistance level, with entry signals triggered when the price breaks below key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8%) and volume confirms the move. Stops could be placed just above the 20-period MA or the nearest resistance zone, while targets aim for the next lower Fibonacci level or a 3–5% risk-adjusted return. This approach would aim to capitalize on the strong bearish momentum observed in ETHPLN and could be tested for its viability in similar volatile markets.