Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) Daily Summary

• ETHJPY opened at ¥681,462, peaked at ¥686,369, and closed at ¥669,700 after 24 hours of volatile trading.
• A bearish trend gained momentum post-¥685,000, with key support now near ¥670,000 and resistance at ¥684,000.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish pressure, while RSI approached oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the morning selloff, signaling heightened volatility and potential consolidation ahead.
• Turnover increased during major dips, suggesting active profit-taking and risk-off behavior among traders.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥681,462 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at ¥669,700 by 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥686,369 and a low of ¥659,000. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1,489.16 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥1,017,561,467. The pair experienced a pronounced bearish shift late into the session, with clear signs of exhaustion in the form of extended bearish candles and overextended RSI readings.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish reversal patterns including a bearish engulfing pattern near ¥683,000 and a morning doji at ¥679,513. A strong support zone emerged at ¥670,000–¥669,500 after a test from below. The 682,000–685,000 range served as both a former resistance and a psychological pivot, now acting as a key support cluster on retests.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned below price, reinforcing the downtrend. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at around ¥680,000, suggesting a potential near-term pivot. The 200-period MA is significantly higher, at ¥690,000, indicating a potential medium-term bearish setup if the current support fails.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative since the morning sell-off, reflecting a shift in momentum to the bears. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30) near ¥669,000, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound or consolidation. However, a lack of bullish confirmation on follow-through volume reduces the probability of a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically during the morning and early afternoon selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the sharp drop from ¥685,000 to ¥670,000. Currently, price is trading near the lower band at ¥669,000, indicating a potential support test with a risk of a deeper pullback if the level breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning sell-off, particularly between 03:45 and 04:00 ET, when price dropped from ¥678,592 to ¥669,782. The volume-to-price correlation was strong during the downward moves, suggesting conviction among sellers. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a surge during the most aggressive selloffs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the ¥686,369 high to the ¥659,000 low show key retracement levels at ¥678,777 (38.2%) and ¥667,237 (61.8%). Price is currently hovering near the 61.8% level at ¥667,237, where a potential bounce or breakdown could dictate the next trend direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest strategy involves entering a short position upon a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥667,237, with a stop-loss placed above the recent high at ¥678,500. A target would be set at the next Fibonacci level at ¥659,000, or alternatively, a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio could be used. This hypothesis aligns with current bearish momentum and overextended RSI readings, and should be tested against similar setups in the data.