Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• ETHJPY surged past 562,680 JPY, reaching a high, with volume and turnover confirming bullish momentum.
• The 24-hour range reflects strong upward bias and a close near the session high.
• Key resistance and support levels were tested, with price action showing aggressive buying.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 540,018 JPY at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 562,680 JPY before closing near 556,640 JPY at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,328.95556 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1,319,014,374 (based on weighted average close prices).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displays a clear bullish breakout above the key resistance level of 562,680 JPY. The candlestick pattern near this level is a strong white candle with limited retracement, suggesting strong demand. A bearish reversal pattern began forming after this high, with a long upper shadow on the following candle, indicating potential profit-taking or consolidation. A 556,640 JPY level emerged as strong support, where buying interest reasserted itself.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upward, with the 20-period line rising above the 50-period, signaling a bullish crossover. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are aligned in a positive slope, reinforcing the longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in positive territory, with the histogram expanding during the surge to 562,680 JPY. The RSI hit overbought levels multiple times, peaking at approximately 76, signaling potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased as price approached the upper Bollinger Band at 562,680 JPY. The price then retracted within the band and found support at the lower band level around 556,640 JPY, suggesting a healthy range-bound environment with breakout potential.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the move from 540,018 JPY to 562,680 JPY, especially in the hours between 23:15 and 00:45 ET, confirming the strength of the breakout. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, aligning with price direction and indicating strong conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 538,841 JPY to 562,680 JPY, the 61.8% level at 554,500 JPY was a critical support, and the price stabilized near this level before resuming upward movement. The 38.2% level at 556,800 JPY also acted as a minor floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy of buying upon a breakout above 562,680 JPY, with a stop-loss at 556,640 JPY, appears consistent with the observed price behavior. The recent 24-hour data shows multiple entries and exits that could be simulated using this rule. The key is to validate how this strategy would have performed historically, factoring in slippage, fees, and market noise, particularly during the high-volatility periods. This approach may benefit from a trailing stop or a dynamic profit target if the trend shows signs of continuation.