Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-13)

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) rose from 672,076 to 699,108 yen, driven by sustained volume and bullish momentum.
• Strong breakout above 696,000 saw RSI peak near overbought and MACD line surge.
• Volatility spiked after 03:45 ET as Bollinger Bands widened and price surged to 701,962.
• Heavy distribution emerged post 14:00 ET, dragging price down toward key support near 685,000.
• Mixed signals from candlestick patterns suggest short-term indecision after the rally.

The Ethereum/Yen pair (ETHJPY) opened at 672,076 yen on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 687,335 yen on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 704,616 and a low of 672,076. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,206.79 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥678.97 million.

Structure & Formations

Price broke out above the ascending wedge pattern at 695,000, continuing to 701,962 before consolidating into a bearish flag formation. A key resistance at 703,000 faced rejection, while 685,000 and 675,000 appear as strong support levels. A long-legged doji formed at 05:15 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at 14:00 ET suggest potential short-term correction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating a bullish trend. The 50SMA at ~697,500 acted as a dynamic support, while the 100EMA and 200EMA on the daily chart show a slow but clear upward shift, supporting a continuation case for the long-term uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy aligns well with the observed price behavior, particularly the use of moving averages and RSI to confirm breakouts and divergences. A backtest using this method on the ETHJPY 15-minute data would likely show positive performance during the 03:45–04:00 ET window when the price surged above 700,000 and retested the 50SMA. By incorporating volume divergence during the 14:00–15:00 ET pullback, the strategy could have identified a high-probability short entry, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern. This suggests the strategy has strong potential for both long and short setups during high-volatility events.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD surged into strong positive territory during the 03:45–04:00 ET window, peaking at 16,000 before diverging from price during the afternoon pullback. RSI peaked at 82 at 04:00 ET, indicating overbought conditions, though a divergence emerged during the 14:00–15:00 ET leg down, suggesting bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 03:45–04:45 ET, with price reaching the upper band at 704,616. During the afternoon, bands narrowed slightly but remained wide, showing continued volatility. Price remains above the middle band, suggesting the bullish trend remains intact but may face short-term resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a peak of 125.68 ETH at 03:45 ET as price surged above 700,000. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume during the afternoon pullback, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the rally. Turnover also rose sharply during the breakout, confirming institutional participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~697,500 before finding support. Daily Fibonacci levels show that the 685,000 level is a critical 38.2% retracement from the 704,616 high, suggesting a possible continuation of the trend if this level holds.

Given the recent volatility and divergence in momentum indicators, Ethereum/Yen is likely to test key support levels over the next 24 hours, with potential for a rebound if 685,000 holds. However, a break below this level could accelerate toward 675,000, so risk management remains critical.