Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) – 2025-10-13

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) traded with a bullish bias over the 24-hour period, closing at 631,802 yen after opening at 611,717 yen.
• Momentum indicators suggest strong upward momentum, with the RSI nearing overbought territory, indicating a possible pause or correction.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening, and key swing levels forming potential support/resistance.
• Volume surged during key upswings but declined slightly in the final hours, hinting at waning buying pressure.
• A strong 15-minute golden cross and bullish engulfing pattern occurred near the session high, offering a technical buy signal.

The 24-hour ETHJPY session on October 13, 2025, saw a significant rally, opening at 611,717 yen at 12:00 ET-1 and climbing to a high of 640,624 yen before closing at 631,802 yen. Total volume for the period was approximately 10,683.89 ETH, with a notional turnover of roughly ¥6.56 billion, marking a concentrated upswing with strong buyer participation during key hours of the day.

From a technical perspective, the 15-minute chart displayed a clear bullish bias. The price moved above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the rally, forming a potential golden cross. The MACD line crossed above the signal line with positive divergence, reinforcing the bullish momentum. RSI rose above 70 toward the top of the move, signaling overbought conditions and a potential near-term pause. A key bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the early New York session, confirming strength in the move higher.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained near the upper band for a majority of the day, particularly during the late-night hours in Asia and early-morning in the Americas, indicating strong buying pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels at 616,613 and 625,652 marked significant prior support/resistance, which were successfully retested and then broken out above.

The volume profile showed concentrated buying during the rally, with volume surging near the session high at 640,624. However, volume dipped slightly in the final hours of the session, suggesting some profit-taking or hesitation ahead of the close. Turnover also spiked during the rally but did not confirm a full continuation pattern, hinting that further consolidation may occur before a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute golden cross and bullish momentum indicators observed during the session, the MACD-Golden-Cross backtest strategy was applied to ETHJPY from January 1, 2022, through October 13, 2025. The strategy, however, underperformed the market, recording an overall loss of approximately 33% and a Sharpe ratio below 0. This suggests that while the strategy can identify short-term momentum opportunities, it may struggle in volatile and trend-against environments. The largest drawdown reached nearly 36%, highlighting the risks of relying solely on a momentum-based approach without adequate risk controls. The average winning trade was around +14%, but the win rate and loss management were insufficient to offset frequent losing trades. Traders considering this strategy should explore risk-adjusted modifications, such as tighter stop-loss levels or integration of additional filters like Bollinger Bands or RSI divergence.