Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-10-03

• ETHJPY surged 5.4% in 24 hours, forming a bullish continuation pattern with high volume in late-night hours.
• Key resistance at 664,500 appears contested, while support at 658,000 held through early morning consolidation.
• Momentum indicators show overbought conditions, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded post-20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as price broke above upper band.
• Notional turnover increased sharply post-19:15 ET, aligning with a sharp 3.7% rally in 45 minutes.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 649,920 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of 675,000 before closing at 661,080 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair reached a low of 649,920 during the session, with total traded volume of 2,209.344 ETH and notional turnover of approximately ¥1.47B (assuming average price of ¥665,000).

Structure & Formations

The ETHJPY chart displayed a strong bullish continuation pattern following a consolidation phase between 657,000 and 661,000. A key breakout above 664,500 occurred around 02:15 ET, marked by a long white candle with high volume. A bearish harami pattern emerged between 05:00 and 05:30 ET, suggesting short-term profit-taking. Key support levels were identified at 658,000 and 655,000, both of which held multiple times. Resistance levels at 664,500 and 669,000 showed mixed behavior, with price testing these levels multiple times without decisive rejection.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA in the early hours, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period daily moving average (DMA) at approximately 659,000 acted as a dynamic support during the consolidation phase. The 200-DMA, positioned at 652,000, was a critical psychological level during the session, with ETHJPY trading well above it, signaling strong medium-term bullish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover around 00:15 ET and remained positive throughout the session, with the histogram expanding during the late-night rally. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) after 02:30 ET, peaking at 76 around 04:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion. A bearish divergence formed between RSI and price after 05:30 ET, suggesting caution. Daily RSI showed a strong rally into the upper 60s but failed to close above 70, which may signal a continuation of bullish momentum with room to consolidate.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as price broke above the upper band. The 24-hour range fell outside the band at several points, reflecting heightened trading activity and sharp price swings. After 06:00 ET, volatility began to contract, with ETHJPY trading within a narrower range, suggesting a potential period of consolidation or reversal. The price re-entered the upper band around 03:45 ET before closing near the midpoint, signaling mixed conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the late-night hours, peaking at 103.05 ETH around 03:15 ET. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest turnover (approximately ¥70M) occurring at the same time. A divergence between price and volume was observed after 05:15 ET, as volume declined while price continued higher, suggesting weakening momentum. This divergence aligns with the bearish harami and RSI divergence, indicating caution for further upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 662,500 acted as both support and resistance, with price testing this level twice before moving higher. Daily Fibonacci levels placed key support at 657,500 (38.2%) and 652,000 (61.8%). ETHJPY held above the 38.2% level during the session, confirming the strength of the bullish trend and reinforcing the validity of the breakout above 664,500.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on breakout and continuation patterns observed in this session, particularly the strong 45-minute move from 661,000 to 664,500 on high volume. A simple long entry rule could be triggered on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmation of a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover. Stop-loss could be placed below the 658,000 support level, while a trailing take-profit could follow the 669,000 resistance. Historical testing of this pattern in similar ETHJPY sessions could validate its reliability in trending conditions.