Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-27

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) rose 0.7% in the last 24 hours, with price finding a base in the 590,000–605,000 range.
• Volatility expanded after midday ET, with a 4.5% range between the daily low and high.
• A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed between 17:30 and 18:00 ET, confirming short-term momentum.
• RSI hit overbought territory near 75, indicating potential short-term pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands widened following the breakout above 605,000, signaling rising volatility.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 590,991 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 599,884 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 605,550 and a low of 590,991. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 1,774.35 ETH, with notional turnover around $105.7M (assuming average price of $3,700/ETH).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bullish bias during the afternoon and early evening hours, with key support levels forming around 596,000–598,000 and resistance near 603,000–605,500. A strong bullish engulfing pattern appeared between 17:30 and 18:00 ET, confirming a breakout from a consolidation phase. Later, between 23:15 and 23:30 ET, a small doji formed near 602,846, suggesting short-term indecision ahead of the 605,000 resistance level. These formations indicate that buyers remain in control, but caution is warranted near overbought levels.

Moving Averages & Volatility

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price during the afternoon, reinforcing bullish momentum. The daily chart’s 50- and 200-period MAs suggest a longer-term bullish trend. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price moved beyond the 605,000 level, indicating rising volatility and a potential continuation or correction phase. Traders should monitor whether price holds above 600,000, which may confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Momentum & Overbought Conditions

The 14-period RSI hit overbought territory (near 75) during the late afternoon, suggesting that a short-term pullback may be likely. MACD showed a positive divergence and a bullish crossover, reinforcing the idea that upward momentum remains strong. However, overbought conditions often precede corrections, and a pullback toward the 596,000–598,000 range could test the strength of the current trend. If RSI drops below 50, it may signal a shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period EMA and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level. Given today's bullish engulfing pattern and the EMA crossover, the strategy would have triggered an entry around 597,000–598,000. The target aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 605,000, which was indeed reached. While the strategy shows potential in trending conditions, it would face risk during overbought RSI scenarios, like today’s, where a pullback may occur.