Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-18

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) rose 6.07% in the last 24 hours, with a sharp 15-minute breakout from 660k to 682k.
• A bullish continuation pattern emerged as price broke above a key 665k resistance with strong volume and positive momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands showing widening and price staying near the upper band.
• RSI remains overbought near 75, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback, but MACD shows strong bullish divergence.
• Turnover surged in the late hours, with the 18:00–20:00 ET session contributing 16.8% of total 24-hour notional volume.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 659,011 Yen at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached an intraday high of 683,652 Yen by 03:30 ET. The pair closed at 675,520 Yen at 12:00 ET, up 6.07% on the day. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 3,360.62 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥2.32B, driven by increased buying pressure after 18:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish bias after a key breakout above 665,000. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at 18:00 ET, followed by a strong continuation rally. Price found initial support at 660k and 655k before surging higher. A doji near 675k in the final 15 minutes suggests some short-term consolidation. Key resistance levels now sit at 680k, with 685k as the next psychological target. The 670k level appears to be a strong interim support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period at 660k, confirming bullish momentum. The 50-period is currently at 673,000, and the 20-period is at 676,000, both in positive territory. On the daily chart, the 50-period is at 665k, while the 100-period is at 660k and the 200-period at 650k. This suggests a potential consolidation phase above the 200SMA before a higher close can be considered.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong bullish crossover in the late afternoon, with the histogram expanding to indicate strong momentum. RSI remains overbought at 75–78 for the last 30 minutes, suggesting a possible pullback near 72–70. However, divergence in the MACD line and positive momentum suggest that overbought conditions may persist for another 6–12 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart show significant volatility expansion post-18:00 ET, with the upper band reaching 683k and the lower at 668k. Price has remained near the upper band for much of the session, indicating a continuation of the bullish move. A contraction in the bands could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 18:00 ET, with the most significant 15-minute candle at 18:00 ET posting 95.4k ETH traded and a turnover of ¥61.6M. This session accounted for 16.8% of total notional turnover. Volume and price action appear to be in strong alignment, with higher highs and higher volumes. No significant divergence was observed, suggesting the trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 18:00–22:00 ET rally (from 660k to 682k), the 61.8% retracement is currently at 672k, which aligns with the 50SMA on the daily chart. The 38.2% level is near 668k and has been tested twice in the past 2 hours. A break above 682k would bring the 76.4% extension to 689k into focus as a key target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish divergence and volume confirmation, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a confirmed break above 675k with a stop just below 670k. Targets could be set at 680k and 685k, with a trailing stop at 50-period moving average. A 15-minute RSI over 75 and a closing candle above the upper Bollinger Band could be used as entry filters. This approach would aim to capture continuation of the current trend while mitigating risk on a short-term pullback.