Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) — 2025-09-17

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) closed near a 24-hour low, suggesting bearish momentum amid mixed volume dynamics.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning, followed by a sharp pullback into consolidation.
• Volatility expanded midday, with prices spiking past key resistance levels before retreating below 660,000.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, while MACD remains bearish, signaling potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at a possible breakout or reversal in the near term.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 654,030 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 668,430, a low of 653,422, and closed at 658,838 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1,121.18 ETH, and turnover amounted to approximately ¥735,751,447 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period showed a distinct bullish engulfing pattern around 02:45 ET as the price surged from 663,267 to 667,258. However, this was followed by a sharp correction that saw Ethereum/Yen pull back below key psychological levels. A significant bearish divergence emerged in the late afternoon, with prices forming a lower high and lower close over three consecutive 15-minute candles. This signals bearish exhaustion at the top. A doji near 658,500 and 659,000 suggests indecision and could act as a potential pivot point. Key resistance levels to watch include 661,000 and 663,000, while 658,000 and 656,000 provide critical support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned around the mid-659,000s, suggesting neutral to slightly bearish bias. The 50-period MA is slightly above the 20-period line, indicating a potential short-term correction. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 657,000, while the 200-period MA is at 654,000, placing ETHJPY in a slight bearish bias but still above key support levels. A close below 656,000 could trigger further short-term selling pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative midday, reflecting weakening bullish momentum after the morning spike. RSI dipped to 30 in the afternoon, indicating oversold conditions. This could signal a short-term bounce but not necessarily a reversal. A recovery in RSI above 50 and a positive MACD crossover would be a bear-trap warning for short sellers. However, the current RSI/RSI divergence suggests that bearish pressure may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in the morning as the price surged above the upper band before retracing. A period of contraction followed in the early afternoon, suggesting a potential breakout phase. As of the final 15-minute candle, ETHJPY closed just below the mid-band, indicating a continuation of consolidation. A move above the 661,000–662,000 range would be a confirmation of renewed volatility and bullish intent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning breakout, with over 26 ETH traded in the 03:00 ET candle. Turnover reached its peak at 667,258 and declined sharply afterward, indicating profit-taking or stop-loss activity. The afternoon saw a drop in volume despite continued price volatility, pointing to reduced conviction in the bearish move. Notably, turnover and price moved in opposite directions during the late afternoon, signaling potential divergence and increased uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning high (668,430) and the 24-hour low (653,422), the 38.2% and 61.8% levels fall at 664,278 and 657,306, respectively. ETHJPY closed near the 61.8% level, which is a key support area. A break below this would likely bring the 50% level (659,988) into play as a short-term ceiling for a bounce. The 38.2% level may act as resistance if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves using a combination of the 50-period MA on the daily chart and RSI (14) to generate entry signals. Specifically, a long entry is triggered when the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA (golden cross), and RSI dips below 30. A short entry is signaled when the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA (death cross), and RSI rises above 70. The strategy also incorporates a stop-loss at the nearest Fibonacci support or resistance level. In the context of the recent ETHJPY action, the golden cross remains intact, and RSI is currently near the oversold threshold, suggesting potential for a mean-reversion strategy in the near term. The morning spike aligns with the entry criteria, but the subsequent pullback highlights the need for a tight stop to avoid whipsaw losses.