Market Overview: Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) - 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• ETHUSDT opened at $4,107.62, surged to $4,146.96, then collapsed to $3,951.72, closing at $3,951.72 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility spiked after 20:00 ET, with a -4.1% decline and volume spiking to 19,570.44.
• MACD turned bearish, RSI hit oversold levels, and Bollinger Bands narrowed sharply post-19:00 ET.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the final 3 hours, with volume surging but price falling.
• A potential bounce from the 3984–4000 support zone may test 4020–4035 next.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,107.62 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $3,951.72 at 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour high of $4,146.96 and a low of $3,951.72. Total volume was 265,352.46 ETH, with a notional turnover of $1,069,245,336. The price action reflects a bearish reversal driven by heightened selling pressure after 20:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around $4,140–4,120 at 18:30–19:30 ET, followed by a large bearish harami on the 19:30–20:00 candle. Key support levels include $3,952 (2025-10-29 low), $3,984 (38.2% Fibonacci retrace from the 20:00–23:45 consolidation), and $4,000 (psychological level). Resistance remains at $4,015–4,025 as a near-term retest zone.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price during the 20:30–22:00 window, signaling a bearish bias. The daily 50- and 200-period averages suggest a longer-term bear trend is intact, with ETHUSDT now below both major moving averages for the first time since mid-October.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover during the 21:00–21:45 window and remained below the signal line. RSI hit oversold levels at 26–29 by 02:00 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI divergence (rising RSI with falling price) in the final 3 hours highlights potential for further weakness despite oversold readings.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between $3,980–4,000 from 03:45–06:00 ET, indicating low volatility and a potential breakout period. Price then moved below the lower band, confirming bearish momentum. The widening of the bands post-09:00 ET reflects renewed volatility and a shift in market sentiment toward caution.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 19,570.43 ETH at 20:00 ET as price dropped sharply, but notional turnover failed to confirm the strength of the move, declining after 02:00 ET. A divergence emerged between price and turnover in the last 3 hours, with volume rising to 9,834.44 ETH but price falling to $3,951.72 — a bearish sign of thinning liquidity and potential capitulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% ($3,984) and 61.8% ($3,960) were tested in the 02:45–06:00 window. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent $4,107–$3,951 move sits at $3,987, which could serve as a pivot point. A break above $4,025 would trigger retests of the 161.8% level at $4,060.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern at $4,140–4,120 and the subsequent breakdown below $4,000 suggest a potential mean-reversion strategy could have been triggered. A backtest using a 15-minute time frame might test the following: entering a short at the close of the 19:30 candle on a confirmed break below the 19:30 open, with a stop above the 20:00 high and a target at 38.2% Fibonacci level. This aligns with MACD bearish cross and volume confirmation, offering a high-probability setup for a short-term bear trade.