Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• ETHUSDT declined 6.6% in 24 hours, closing at 3825.13 with a 15-minute low of 3435.0.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI below 30 and MACD bearish crossover.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with 200k+ USDT turnover during sharp selloffs.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion suggests increased directional bias.
• Large-volume bearish engulfing patterns emerged during key support tests.

Market Open and Close

On 2025-10-11, Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at 4102.97 at 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 4141.98 and a low of 3435.0 before closing at 3825.13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 2,195,168.11 ETH and the notional turnover amounted to 857,143,793.07 USDT.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern reveals a bearish bias, marked by multiple large-volume bearish engulfing patterns and a key support level forming around 3800–3820. A significant doji formed near 3845 as buyers attempted to push the price higher but failed to close above it. A descending channel is developing as sellers appear to dominate the short-term structure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are also bearish, reinforcing the downtrend. A retest of the 50SMA (~3920) may offer short-term resistance if buyers show strength, but this appears unlikely given current momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming the bearish trend. RSI is currently at 28, indicating oversold territory, though without a strong bounce this may not signal a reversal. Momentum remains decisively bearish with no signs of a reversal or pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the selloff, with the bands widening significantly below 3900. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A contraction in the band width may precede a breakout or continuation of the downtrend, but given the current sentiment, a continuation is more likely than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish swings, particularly during the sharp drop from 4000 to 3640. Turnover mirrored this, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume has declined slightly in the final 6 hours, potentially signaling exhaustion or a pause in the selloff. Price and turnover remained aligned, showing no divergence at this time.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% retracement level of the previous bullish swing at 3840 but failed to hold it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the recent bearish leg (~3750) appears vulnerable. A break below 3750 could target the next key level at 3650.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves shorting ETHUSDT upon a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI < 30, with a stop-loss placed above the 50SMA. Based on the current structure, a short entry at 3845 with a stop at 3885 aligns with the observed bearish bias. This setup would have a high probability of success over the next 24 hours, given the dominance of bearish momentum and lack of buyer participation.

Outlook and Risk

The immediate outlook remains bearish, with price likely to retest 3750 as the next key target. A break of 3750 would confirm a deeper correction toward 3650. Traders should remain cautious as oversold conditions can sometimes trigger short-covering rallies, though with volume declining, the chances of a reversal remain low.