Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT): 2025-10-05

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) rose from $4,450 to $4,615 before correcting to close at $4,532.
• Strong volume surges were seen during the upward move, suggesting institutional or algorithmic buying.
• A bullish breakout above the 4,550 level was followed by a pullback into Bollinger Bands, indicating potential consolidation.
• RSI remains elevated at ~70, signaling overbought conditions, while MACD diverged slightly from price at the peak.
• Fibonacci retracements show 61.8% support near $4,518 and a key resistance at $4,575 on the 15-minute chart.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,450.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04 and reached a high of $4,615 before closing at $4,532.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The 24-hour volume was 308,535.03 ETH, with total notional turnover of $1,387,723,084. The session saw a sharp upward thrust followed by a retracement, with key support and resistance levels defined by recent candle formations.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a strong ascending impulse followed by a corrective wave that resulted in a bullish pennant pattern around 4,540–4,560. A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern was observed near the $4,550 level, signaling potential continuation of the upward trend. A doji appeared near the high at $4,615, suggesting a possible pause in momentum and a shift into consolidation.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both showed a bullish bias, with price consistently above both lines during the rally. On the daily chart, Ethereum is above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a medium-term bullish trend. The 200-day MA is still below current price levels, suggesting a continuation of the broader upward trend from earlier in the year.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong positive crossover near the $4,550 level, confirming the bullish momentum. However, the histogram began to contract as the price approached $4,615, indicating a potential slowdown. The RSI hit overbought territory (~70) during the peak and pulled back to ~63, signaling potential for a short-term correction or consolidation. A divergence in the RSI and price at the peak suggests caution ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Ethereum's price broke out above the upper Bollinger Band during the rally, showing increased volatility and momentum. Following the peak, the price moved back into the band and is now consolidating near the midline. This behavior suggests a temporary pause in the upward thrust, with a potential for a continuation if the midline is held.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the upward move, with over 45,000 ETH traded during the hour leading to the $4,615 peak. Turnover surged in line with this volume, reinforcing the validity of the move. A volume divergence appeared at the peak, with lower volume supporting the higher highs, signaling possible exhaustion. The retracement saw a sharp drop in volume, indicating a lack of bearish conviction in the pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute move from $4,450 to $4,615 has key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($4,546), 50% ($4,533), and 61.8% ($4,518). The price is currently consolidating near the 50% level, which appears to be a strong support zone. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level lies at $4,475, which could become a critical support if the correction continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a strategy that targets breakout continuation after a bullish engulfing pattern could prove profitable in this environment. A trade would enter at the close of the bullish engulfing pattern near $4,550 and target the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (~$4,645). A stop-loss would be placed below the doji at $4,540. This approach could benefit from the strong volume and MACD confirmation observed during the breakout.