Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• ETH/USDT declined 1.25% over 24 hours, opening at $4498.89 and closing at $4483.84.
• Price tested key support at $4480–4490, with bearish momentum visible in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded midday before contracting, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.
• Volume dipped during late-night trading, with price-volume divergence observed after $4490.
• No decisive reversal patterns emerged, suggesting continuation of bearish bias for now.

The Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) pair opened at $4498.89 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $4483.84 at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $4591.59 and a low of $4441.34. The total notional volume traded was $941,697.77, with a total turnover of 211,915.64 ETH, indicating moderate activity across the time period.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a clear bearish bias, with a broad descending pattern forming between the morning highs and late-day lows. Key support levels emerged around $4480–$4490, where price bounced slightly before continuing downward. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed just before 17:15 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. No strong reversal patterns emerged, suggesting the current trend may persist. Resistance remains at $4520–4530, which has been tested multiple times but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both moved lower, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. Price frequently dipped below the 50-period MA, particularly in the late afternoon and early evening. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are closely aligned, while the 200-period MA remains above current price levels, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The convergence of the 50 and 100-day MAs may suggest a potential flattening of the trend if the price stabilizes above $4480.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative for most of the day, with bearish divergence visible after 19:00 ET as price made higher lows but MACD made lower highs. The RSI indicator confirmed this bearish momentum, with values dipping below 30 at several points, suggesting oversold conditions. However, RSI failed to rebound meaningfully above 50, signaling weak buying interest. A bounce above the 50 RSI threshold would be required for a potential reversal to gain traction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded midday as price moved between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, reaching a high of $4591.59 before pulling back. The contraction of the bands after 23:00 ET suggests decreasing volatility and a potential consolidation phase ahead. Price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, indicating bearish pressure. A sustained move above the midline of the bands would suggest a potential reversal or bullish breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained moderate throughout, with a noticeable dip in volume during late-night trading hours. Notional turnover spiked in the late morning hours, particularly between 16:00 and 19:00 ET, as price moved between key support and resistance levels. A divergence between price and volume was noted after 20:00 ET, as price continued to fall while volume declined, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. However, volume picked up again in the early morning hours as price found support near $4480, hinting at potential buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning high of $4591.59 and the low of $4441.34, price found key support at the 61.8% level of $4481.85, aligning with recent consolidation. The 38.2% and 50% levels failed to hold as price continued downward, indicating a stronger bearish bias. On the 15-minute chart, a minor retracement to the 38.2% level at $4496.50 was observed, but bearish pressure quickly resumed. A break below the $4480 support could test the next Fibonacci level at $4452.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish momentum and key support levels, a backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on ETHUSDT when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4481.85, with a stop-loss placed just above the nearest resistance at $4490 and a target at the next major support at $4452. A trailing stop could be used as price consolidates or rallies within the Fibonacci range. This approach leverages the bearish bias confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence, aiming to capitalize on the continuation of the current downward trend while managing risk with structured exits.