Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – 2025-09-16

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) traded with a bullish bias in the final hours, closing near the 24-hour high.
• Volatility surged after 04:00 ET as prices broke above a key 15-minute resistance level.
• Volume and turnover remained relatively balanced, with no major divergences observed.
• RSI showed signs of overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a near-term correction.
• A strong bearish candle formed at 04:15 ET, followed by a sharp recovery, signaling indecision in the market.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,485.00 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $4,501.26 at 12:00 ET today, hitting a high of $4,538.25 and a low of $4,474.77. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 104,507.16 ETH, and notional turnover reached $469,774,687 USD.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, ETHUSDT demonstrated a dynamic price action within a consolidating range, punctuated by a sharp bullish breakout and a bearish counterattack. A key resistance level at $4,520.00 was tested multiple times and eventually broken in the early hours of the trading session. A strong bearish reversal candle emerged at $4,509.13 on 04:15 ET, followed by a bullish counterattack by 05:00 ET. This pattern suggests short-term indecision but may lead to a continuation of the upward trend if the $4,500.00 level holds.

A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 04:15 ET, confirming a sell-off, but a subsequent bullish engulfing pattern at 05:00 ET reversed the trend. A doji at $4,501.26 at the end of the 24-hour period suggests possible exhaustion of the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish bias during the early hours, but the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the afternoon, signaling a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a medium-term bullish bias, with ETHUSDT closing above all three.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the afternoon and remained positive for the rest of the session, supporting the bullish momentum. RSI reached an overbought level of 72 during the late afternoon and closed at 67, suggesting a potential pullback may occur in the near future. The divergence between the strong price rally and the RSI’s failure to make a new high could be a sign of a near-term top forming.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively stable during the first half of the session but surged after 04:00 ET when the price broke above the upper band, indicating a significant move. The price remained above the upper band for several hours before consolidating and closing just below it. This suggests that the breakout may be genuine if the price remains above the lower band in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume was above average during the breakout in the early hours, with a peak of 6,333 ETH at 05:00 ET. Turnover also rose during this period, confirming the strength of the bullish move. However, volume has since declined, which could signal a slowdown in momentum unless a new catalyst emerges.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from the low of $4,474.77 to the high of $4,538.25 saw key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($4,512.15) and 61.8% ($4,503.33) being tested. The price bounced off the 61.8% level during the afternoon, suggesting it could serve as a key support level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the effectiveness of the observed price action, one potential strategy is to enter a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern after a confirmed breakout above a 15-minute resistance level, with a stop loss placed below the last bearish reversal candle’s low. A target could be set using Fibonacci projections to the next key resistance or through trailing the upper Bollinger Band. If the 61.8% Fibonacci level holds and the RSI remains above 50, the probability of a continuation of the bullish trend increases. This strategy aligns with the recent behavior and could be backtested for accuracy over the past month.