Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT): 2025-09-15

• ETHUSDT traded in a volatile range today, opening at $4593.92 and reaching a high of $4664.07 before closing at $4530.65.
• Momentum indicators signaled overbought conditions in the morning, followed by a sharp RSI divergence suggesting bearish reversal potential.
• A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the top of the $4635–$4640 range, confirming short-term bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded in the morning session, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume spiking above the 24-hour average.
• Turnover surged after 04:00 ET, but failed to confirm higher prices, hinting at profit-taking and distribution behavior.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4593.92 at 12:00 ET–1, reaching a 24-hour high of $4664.07 before closing at $4530.65 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 255,183.23 ETH, while notional turnover stood at approximately $1.18 billion over the 24-hour period. The session featured a strong intraday move that tested key resistance levels and saw a reversal into bearish territory after a morning overbought phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern at $4635–$4640 between 04:00 and 04:15 ET, suggesting exhaustion among buyers. This pattern coincided with a sharp volume spike and a failed attempt to break above the prior high. A large bearish candle at 06:15 ET–06:30 ET confirmed the reversal, pulling price back below $4630. A potential support zone emerged around $4600–$4595 after a failed rally attempt, with a doji appearing at $4596.41–$4596.82 at 07:45 ET, suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) moved above the 50-period MA during the morning rally, forming a bullish crossover that failed to hold. By 06:30 ET, the 20 MA had crossed back below the 50 MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 MA stood at approximately $4580, with price dipping below the 200 MA for the first time in several days, suggesting medium-term bearish momentum may be gaining strength.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit overbought territory (above 70) between 04:15 and 04:45 ET, but failed to follow through with a bullish move, forming a bearish divergence. The MACD crossed back below the signal line around 06:00 ET, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. Both indicators suggest a potential continuation of the downward move unless price manages to close above $4630 for multiple consecutive hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the early morning hours as volatility increased, with price reaching the upper band before retracing. By 06:30 ET, price had collapsed to near the lower band, indicating a reversal in volatility and a shift toward mean reversion. The narrowing of bands during the afternoon suggests a potential consolidation phase could follow if buyers re-enter.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked after 04:00 ET, coinciding with the price high of $4664.07, but failed to confirm a sustainable breakout. This divergence between volume and price suggests profit-taking and distribution behavior among larger participants. After 08:00 ET, turnover declined alongside price, indicating reduced interest or a shift in market sentiment toward bearishness.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $4595 to $4664 shows key levels at 38.2% ($4632) and 61.8% ($4609), which were both tested and failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the previous bullish leg sits near $4570, which could become a near-term target if the downward trend continues. Price currently appears to be consolidating around the 50% level of this move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this move could involve a short entry on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern or a RSI divergence above 70, with a stop placed just above the 61.8% retracement level. A trailing stop could be placed at each consecutive lower high as price consolidates. Given the current structure and volume profile, this strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while managing risk through tight stop-loss and take-profit levels.