Market Overview for Ethereum Name Service/Tether (ENSUSDT): 2025-09-20

• Price action showed a distinct bearish breakdown from a prior resistance level at $23.46–23.52.
• Momentum indicators signaled oversold conditions by late local night, hinting at a potential bounce.
• Volatility increased during the 24-hour period, especially after a sharp sell-off at 23:30 ET.
• A key support zone around $23.12–23.15 held on multiple retests, showing resilience.
• Volume spiked sharply on the breakdown, confirming bearish conviction in the short term.

At 12:00 ET on September 19, 2025, the ENSUSDT pair opened at $23.39 and closed at $23.42 by 12:00 ET the following day, reaching a high of $23.55 and a low of $22.98. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 87,003.04 and notional turnover stood at $2,043,365.10, reflecting strong participation and volatility during the session.

The price structure over the past 24 hours showed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance level of $23.46–23.52. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the start of the session, confirming the initial pressure. Later, a long lower shadow formed around $23.12–23.15, suggesting temporary buyer interest amid bearish momentum. On a daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages have both crossed above the 200-period line, indicating a medium-term bullish trend despite recent short-term weakness.

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, reinforcing bearish momentum, while RSI dropped into oversold territory around 03:00 ET, hinting at a potential rebound. However, price failed to break back above $23.35 after multiple attempts, keeping the RSI in a neutral to oversold range for much of the session. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the initial sell-off, with price touching the lower band at $23.02 before stabilizing.

Volume activity surged during the breakdown from $23.46–23.52, particularly in the candle ending at 23:30 ET, with a volume of 2,698.6 and turnover of $62,606.60. This high volume confirmed the bearish sentiment. However, divergence between volume and price emerged during the bounce off $23.15–23.12, as volume remained muted despite price action moving higher. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the swing high at $23.55 to the swing low at $22.98 sits at $23.33, aligning with a key support level. The 61.8% retracement at $23.24 was briefly tested but failed to hold, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a breakout entry system based on the breakdown of key support/resistance levels and confirmation via volume and RSI. Specifically, the system triggers a short position when price closes below a 20-period low with increasing volume and RSI in overbought territory. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level or a key moving average (e.g., 50-period MA). Given today’s structure, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at $23.46–23.52 with confirmation in the early morning hours, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern and strong volume. However, the lack of follow-through and RSI divergence suggest that the strategy may benefit from a filter for divergence and a tighter stop-loss closer to the 23.15–23.12 support zone to avoid false breakouts.