Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) – 24-Hour Summary

• ETHMXN declined sharply over 24 hours, losing 11.6% from 77,395 MXN to 73,458 MXN.
• A long bearish candle formed overnight with high volume, confirming downward momentum.
• Low volatility and minimal turnover suggest limited liquidity and lack of conviction in recent moves.
• RSI and MACD both point to oversold territory, hinting at a potential near-term bounce.
• Key support at 73,458 MXN tested multiple times; resistance retests stalled below 75,396 MXN.

The Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) pair opened at 77,395 MXN on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 73,458 MXN on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 77,395 MXN and a low of 73,458 MXN. Total volume traded was 0.3983 ETH, with notional turnover amounting to 30,374,596 MXN. The market exhibited strong bearish pressure following a sharp decline in the early hours of the morning, with little follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a large bearish candle forming overnight, beginning around 00:15 ET with a low at 76,363 MXN, followed by a breakdown to a 24-hour low of 73,458 MXN at 05:00 ET. This candlestick, resembling a bearish engulfing pattern, appears to confirm a shift in sentiment. Notable support is forming at 73,458 MXN, a level tested repeatedly with no subsequent rejection. Resistance remains at 75,396 MXN, where price stalled multiple times without a decisive breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward and crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, price appears to be forming a bearish crossover with the 50-period MA, and remains below the 100- and 200-period MAs, which further signals medium-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 01:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. The histogram has remained negative throughout the session. RSI has entered oversold territory at around 28, which may suggest a short-term bounce in the near future, but without a strong reversal candlestick, a sustained recovery appears unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been relatively low, with the Bollinger Band width narrowing during the mid-to-late hours of the night before a sharp expansion during the morning sell-off. Price has tested the lower Bollinger Band multiple times at 73,458 MXN, indicating a potential support level, but no bullish reversal has occurred so far.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover increased significantly during the early morning sell-off, particularly around 01:45–02:15 ET when the price broke below 75,534 MXN. However, after 05:00 ET, both volume and turnover have been very low, suggesting a lack of conviction in the current price level. Divergence between volume and price movement in the late morning could indicate a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour move from 77,395 MXN to 73,458 MXN, the 38.2% level is at 75,589 MXN, and the 61.8% level is at 74,634 MXN. Price tested both levels briefly before continuing its decline. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels from recent swings have largely held as resistance and support, reinforcing the key levels identified.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when ETHMXN breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and confirms a bearish crossover with the 50-period MA. A stop-loss is placed just above the most recent swing high, and the target is set to the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. This approach would have captured the overnight sell-off, with a stop-loss near 77,039 MXN and a target near 74,634 MXN. While the initial move passed the target, the final close at 73,458 MXN suggests the strategy could benefit from a trailing stop or extended target after a confirming reversal candle forms.