Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) declined by 1.82% over the past 24 hours with a notable breakdown toward 71,445 MXN.
• Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern on multiple time frames, especially after the 19:00 ET selloff.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price dropping from 76,674 MXN to a 24-hour low of 63,924 MXN.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions briefly but failed to trigger a rebound, suggesting bearish exhaustion may be limited.
• Volume spiked during the key breakdown below 75,000 MXN, confirming bearish momentum for the session.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened the 24-hour period at 75,767 MXN and moved between 75,767 MXN and 76,674 MXN before trending lower. The pair closed at 71,852 MXN at 12:00 ET, marking a 1.82% decline. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 96.55 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 6,853,808 MXN. The price action suggests a bearish shift, with volume confirming the selloff from 75,000 MXN down to intraday lows near 63,924 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed bearish continuation formations, particularly during the 19:00 ET selloff, with a large bearish candle (75,752 MXN → 75,000 MXN) and a later breakdown below 74,000 MXN. Notable support levels were identified at 72,551 MXN and 71,445 MXN, where price consolidated briefly after sharp declines. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 01:00 ET, with the close at 71,445 MXN confirming a potential short-term trend reversal. A key resistance level appears to have formed between 73,000 MXN and 73,500 MXN, with failed tests in the early hours of the morning.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

Using 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, ETHMXN remained below both indicators for most of the session, with the 50-period line acting as a bearish resistance. Price continued to trend lower and remained outside the lower Bollinger Band for much of the night, indicating high volatility and bearish momentum. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands was observed between 01:00 ET and 02:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below key support.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD remained in negative territory for the session, with bearish divergence and a strong bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. RSI briefly reached oversold territory (below 30) around 02:00 ET, but failed to generate a rebound, suggesting limited bearish exhaustion. Both indicators suggest continued bearish momentum unless price rises above the 73,000 MXN threshold, where RSI may begin to show bullish divergence. The MACD histogram continued to shrink after the initial breakdown, indicating potential momentum exhaustion in the short term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume increased sharply during the breakdown below 75,000 MXN, with a large candle at 19:00 ET showing 1.1092 ETH traded. Total turnover spiked during the intraday lows near 63,924 MXN, confirming bearish conviction. However, turnover remained subdued after the 02:00 ET consolidation, with volume declining sharply after the 05:30 ET consolidation at 71,260 MXN. Divergence between price and volume was observed after the 07:00 ET consolidation, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the recent swing from 76,674 MXN to 63,924 MXN. The 61.8% level was reached at approximately 71,467 MXN, coinciding with the 04:45 ET consolidation. The 38.2% level at 72,833 MXN acted as a minor resistance but failed to hold. A rebound above 73,000 MXN may test the 50% level at 70,299 MXN, though this appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using a bearish breakout approach could be applied to ETHMXN based on the breakdown of key support levels. The strategy would involve entering short positions after a bearish engulfing pattern forms below 72,550 MXN, with a stop-loss placed above the recent 73,000 MXN resistance. A target could be set at 70,000 MXN, which represents the 76.4% Fibonacci level from the 76,674 MXN high. The MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum, making this a viable short-term bearish trade setup.