Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) on 2025-10-14

• ETHMXN opened at $75,944 and closed at $73,873, down 2.57% over 24 hours with a high of $79,094 and low of $73,300.
• A strong bearish trend formed after a bullish breakout failed, with price falling below key support levels.
• RSI hit overbought levels mid-day, but failed to follow through, signaling possible momentum divergence.
• Volatility increased sharply during the mid-evening selloff, with turnover surging during the $75k–$73k decline.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed between $78,513 and $73,300, reinforcing potential for further downward pressure.

The Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) pair opened at $75,944 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $73,873 at the same time on 2025-10-14. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $79,094 and a low of $73,300. Total volume amounted to 60.0106 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,420,972 MXN. Price action showed a strong bearish tilt in the latter half of the day, especially after breaking key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern after a short-lived bullish breakout to $79,094. This pattern started at $78,513 and ended at $73,300, indicating strong bearish momentum. Several support levels were tested during the selloff, including the $75,632 and $74,531 areas, but failed to hold. A notable doji formed at $74,531, indicating indecision and weakening bullish conviction. The breakdown below the $75k psychological level appears to have triggered further selling pressure and confirmed the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) crossed into bearish territory, with price closing below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at $76,000, and the 200-period MA is at $77,800, indicating that the current price is significantly below long-term averages. This suggests the market is in a clear bearish trend, with bears dominating short- and long-term dynamics.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the afternoon and remained bearish into the close, with a strong bearish histogram. RSI reached overbought territory in the morning (peaking at ~75) but quickly reversed into oversold territory (dropping below 30) during the selloff. This divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests potential for further downward movement or a temporary bounce within the broader bearish trend. The RSI’s oversold condition may attract short-term buyers, but a sustained recovery seems unlikely without strong reversal signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET as price moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band. By the close, ETHMXN was trading near the lower band, indicating extended bearish pressure and potentially oversold conditions. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the day suggested a consolidation period before the sharp drop. This move outside of the bands highlights a potential exhaustion phase for bears, but without a clear reversal pattern, further downside remains probable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off between 19:15 ET and 03:45 ET, peaking at $11.4923 ETH during the $77k to $76.8k move. Notional turnover also saw a sharp increase during this period, aligning with the price drop. Despite the high volume during the selloff, volume during the consolidation and recovery phases remained subdued, suggesting limited buyer interest. A divergence between volume and price action was not observed, as the price drop was confirmed by strong bearish volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $75,944 to $79,094 swing, key levels include 38.2% at $77,344 and 61.8% at $76,698. Price tested the 38.2% level before breaking down decisively. On the larger daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the $73,300 to $79,094 move is at $75,745, which may act as a short-term support level if the selloff reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed price action and momentum divergence suggest a possible short-term reversal strategy could be tested. A backtest using the ETHMXN pair would involve identifying key support levels—such as Fibonacci retracements or moving averages—and entering trades when price breaks below critical thresholds. For example, a sell entry could be triggered when price drops below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set just above the next resistance level. A take-profit could be placed at the next Fibonacci level or major support. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI divergence seen during the 2025-10-14 session.