Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI): A Volatile 24-Hour Move to the Lower Side

• ETHDAI opens at $3884.59 and closes at $3840.77, with a 24-hour range of $3840.77–$3910.70.
• A sharp downward move late in the day, dipping below prior support levels, shows bearish momentum.
• Volume remains light most of the session, surging only in late hours during the selloff.
• RSI drops below 30 and remains oversold, indicating potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contract early, then widen as volatility increases in the afternoon.

The Ethereum/Dai pair (ETHDAI) opened at $3884.59 on 2025-11-02 and closed at $3840.77, with a high of $3910.70 and a low of $3840.77. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 28.16 ETH, while notional turnover in USD (approximated via price * volume) was substantial due to the large price swings. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the final hours, closing at the lower end of the range.

Structure & Formations

ETHDAI showed a mixed structure over the 24-hour period, initially testing key resistance levels around $3900 before reversing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed near $3880–3890, confirming a shift in sentiment. Later, the price formed a bearish hammer at $3877.74, followed by a long lower shadow at $3872.80, suggesting a failed attempt at a rally. The key support levels observed include $3860–3870, while resistance appears around $3890–3900. A potential bearish trendline has formed from the early highs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward over the 24-hour period, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period SMA, a death cross that signals further bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is above the 100 and 200-period moving averages, maintaining a bearish bias. The price closed below all three, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line and signal line crossed below zero in the latter half of the day, indicating a bearish crossover. The histogram showed a gradual contraction of bullish momentum, followed by a rapid expansion of bearish momentum in the final hours. RSI dropped below 30 and remained in the oversold zone for much of the session, suggesting that the pair may be poised for a short-term bounce, though this does not necessarily confirm a reversal in the overall trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands exhibited a period of contraction early in the session, indicating low volatility and a possible consolidation phase. As the afternoon progressed, volatility increased, and the price moved outside the lower band for an extended period, confirming the bearish breakout. The bands are currently widening, which is consistent with a trending move and could signal continuation of the downtrend in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally muted throughout the session, with most candlesticks showing low trading activity. However, a notable increase in volume occurred as the price moved below $3870, particularly in the final 4–5 hours of the day, confirming the bearish move. The volume increase coincided with a sharp drop in price, suggesting strong selling pressure. There was no notable divergence between price and volume during the session, and the move downward appears well-supported by increased participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $3840.77 to $3910.70, the key levels of 38.2% (~$3875), 61.8% (~$3855), and 100% (~$3840.77) have acted as significant support levels. The price closed near the 100% retracement level, suggesting that sellers are in control. A bounce from this level could find resistance at 61.8% (~$3855), though a retest of $3875 would be necessary for a credible reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and price action observed, a logical backtesting strategy would be to sell at the next defined resistance level. For this analysis, we'll define resistance as the first swing high above the current price within the past 10 candles on the 15-minute chart. If the price closes above this level, it could signal a short-term reversal, but based on current Fibonacci and MACD signals, it is more likely to continue the downtrend. This rule would allow for a relatively aggressive exit if the short-term trend changes, while staying within the bounds of a defined risk-reward framework.