Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) 24-Hour Summary

• ETHDAI opened at 4462.74 and closed at 4317.52 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by a sharp intraday high of 4545.0 and a pullback.
• Momentum decelerated after 18:00 ET, with RSI signaling overbought conditions earlier and a subsequent bearish reversal.
• Volatility expanded significantly from 17:00–20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as price tested and then broke below key support levels.
• A large-volume bearish reversal candle emerged at 03:00 ET, followed by a multi-hour selloff and low turnover divergence in the final hours.
• Notable 15-minute patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:30 ET and a bullish harami near 03:30 ET that failed to confirm follow-through buying.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4462.74 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4317.52 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4545.0 and a low of 4300.0 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 148.61 ETH, with notional turnover totaling 638,599.57 DAI. The session featured significant volatility and a bearish reversal in the final 10 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ETHDAI was characterized by a sharp intraday high at 4545.0, followed by a sustained selloff that accelerated after 03:00 ET. A large bearish engulfing candle formed at 03:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Key support was identified at 4400.0 and 4336.33, both of which were retested and breached. Resistance levels at 4500.0 and 4545.0 appear to have failed to hold. A bullish harami pattern at 03:30 ET failed to confirm follow-through demand, indicating bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ETHDAI closed below its 20-period (EMA20) and 50-period (EMA50) moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. Daily moving averages (EMA50, EMA100, EMA200) are not yet fully calculable with a single daily bar, but the close at 4317.52 suggests a potential bearish crossover from above the longer-term averages in the next 24 hours. This could indicate a continuation of the current downtrend if not reversed.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 18:00 ET, confirming a bearish turn. RSI peaked at 72 during the morning hours, signaling overbought conditions before a rapid decline into oversold territory below 30 by 05:00 ET. This rapid divergence between momentum and price suggests exhausted buying pressure and potential continuation of the downtrend. RSI remains in oversold territory, though it has not yet signaled a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 17:00 and 20:00 ET as volatility increased, with price bouncing near the upper band before breaking out. The selloff pushed price well below the lower band by 03:00 ET, signaling an overextended move. The narrowing of bands in the final 4 hours suggests a potential consolidation phase, though with price still near the lower bound, bearish continuation remains probable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline from 4545.0 to 4336.33, particularly between 03:00 and 04:00 ET. However, in the final 6 hours, volume and turnover declined despite continued downward price movement, indicating potential divergence and a weakening of the bearish thesis. This divergence may signal a possible reversal, though confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major intraday high of 4545.0 to the subsequent low of 4300.0, key retracement levels include 4471.88 (38.2%) and 4418.13 (61.8%). Price held above 4418.13 for much of the session before breaking through. On the 15-minute swings, the 61.8% retracement at 4448.68 was tested and failed, supporting the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action on ETHDAI aligns with a potential backtesting strategy that targets short-term bearish reversals after overbought RSI peaks and bearish engulfing patterns. A strategy that enters a short position after a confirmed bearish engulfing candle (e.g., at 03:00 ET) with RSI above 70 and price above the 20-period EMA could have captured the subsequent 200-point decline. Stops could be placed above the 4500.0 resistance or the upper Bollinger Band during the expansion phase. Target levels could align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 4418.13 and then the 4300.0 support.