Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) 24-Hour Price Action

Summary
• ETHDAI opened at $3,405.19 and surged to $3,479.17 before retreating to $3,386.62 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, with a 24-hour high of $3,479.17 and low of $3,378.32.
• Volume reached a peak of 3.3414 ETH at $3,398.59, but declining turnover suggests fading momentum.

Price Action and Structure

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at $3,405.19 and experienced a sharp rally, forming a bullish candlestick on the 15-minute chart. The price surged past the $3,436.45 level—a previous high—before consolidating in a bearish pattern, ending the 24-hour period at $3,386.62. Key support appears to be forming around the $3,380–$3,390 level, with resistance at $3,440–$3,450 showing repeated pressure. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 12:00 AM ET, suggesting a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly in the early hours, aligning with the price’s breakdown. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) indicate a mixed picture, with the 200-day average acting as a strong floor. Momentum, as measured by RSI, dipped below 30 for a short period, signaling oversold territory, but failed to generate a strong rebound, indicating bearish persistence. MACD crossed bearishly in the early hours, with the histogram reflecting a growing divergence from price.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a significant expansion in volatility during the early morning session, with price breaking out of a tight range between $3,420 and $3,440. The bands now sit around $3,400–$3,480, and ETHDAI closed near the lower band at $3,386.62. This suggests a potential retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,390. A contraction in volatility in the latter part of the day may indicate indecision, but a rebound toward the mid-band could indicate renewed buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements and Backtest Setup

Fibonacci retracements for the recent 15-minute swing from $3,479.17 to $3,378.32 show critical levels at $3,430 (38.2%) and $3,390 (61.8%). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at $3,400 has become a psychological key level. These retracement levels can be used as potential entries or exits in a mean-reversion or breakout strategy.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate this market behavior, a backtest could be structured using the RSI and Fibonacci levels identified. The strategy would look to enter short positions when RSI drops below 30 and the price breaks key Fibonacci support levels, with exits on RSI crossing above 30 or a stop-loss at the 78.6% retracement level. Given the recent volume divergence and bearish momentum, this setup could be refined using ETHDAI as the primary test subject, with 50-day moving averages as a directional filter.