Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-03)

• ETHDAI opened at 4399.45, hit 4556.62, and closed near 4442.87 amid choppy intraday volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged early, but failed to sustain, with bearish momentum picking up after 20:00 ET.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions briefly at 80+ before a pullback, while volume spiked during the 3–5 AM ET consolidation.
• Volatility expanded with a Bollinger Band break above 4500 before retracting, showing mixed conviction.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 4488.1 aligned with key price resistance, acting as a turning point during the sell-off.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4399.45 on October 2, reached a high of 4556.62, and closed at 4442.87 on October 3. Total volume traded was 30.172 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 134,827.62 DAI. Price action was volatile, marked by a sharp rebound into the 4500–4550 range before a bearish reversal took hold.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern displayed a complex wick-heavy formation, with a notable bullish engulfing pattern forming early on from 16:00 to 16:15 ET, suggesting aggressive buying. However, this was short-lived, and the price stalled at 4556.62 before reversing sharply. A key resistance level was identified at 4500–4518.41, while support levels emerged at 4480–4485 and 4460–4470. A doji formed around 08:45 ET, signaling indecision and likely a continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment during the morning, with the 20-period crossing above the 50-period, indicating a short-term bullish bias. However, by 21:00 ET, the 50-period MA began to outpace the price, suggesting a weakening trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive divergence early in the day, confirming the bullish momentum from 16:00–19:00 ET. However, after 20:00 ET, the MACD line fell below the signal line, indicating a bearish turn. The RSI peaked above 80 before the 3–5 AM ET consolidation, suggesting overbought conditions, followed by a sharp decline below 50, signaling bearish momentum. These readings support a potential short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:15–05:00 ET period, with price breaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 4538.41. This was followed by a rapid retraction into the lower band by 05:15 ET, signaling a high-volatility correction. The bands remained wide throughout the morning, suggesting continued uncertainty. Price spent most of the day outside the middle band, indicating a lack of consolidation and ongoing directional pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:15–05:00 ET breakout and again between 20:00–22:00 ET during the bearish reversal. Total notional turnover increased proportionally, confirming the strength of these price moves. However, after 08:00 ET, volume dropped significantly, despite continued price declines, suggesting waning conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between volume and price may signal an upcoming reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were identified from the recent swing high of 4556.62 and low of 4442.87. The 61.8% retracement level was at 4488.1, which acted as a strong resistance and turning point. The 38.2% retracement at 4502.36 also saw price hesitation. These levels provided clear zones of interest and were confirmed by candlestick behavior and volume distribution, especially in the 20:00–22:00 ET and 03:00–05:00 ET windows.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the 50-period moving average crosses below the 20-period MA and RSI drops below 50, with a stop-loss placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 4488.1. A target could be set at the 4460–4470 support zone. This setup leverages both trend and momentum divergence signals, and could be tested for historical accuracy on 15-minute and daily ETHDAI data. The strategy assumes strong bearish conviction and would benefit from incorporating volume divergences as a confirmation filter.