Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) - 2025-11-01

• Ethereum/Dai traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing at 3870.55 ETHDAI after opening at 3853.39.
• Key support found near 3842.93, with rejection attempts near 3885.69 indicating bearish bias.
• Volatility remained moderate with a peak-to-trough range of ~33.6 DAI.
• Momentum indicators suggest a slowdown in downward pressure after a sharp mid-day dip.
• Turnover increased in early evening hours, hinting at renewed short-term interest.

The Ethereum/Dai pair opened at 3853.39 on 2025-11-01 and closed at 3870.55 by 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 3901.06 and a low of 3827.48. The 24-hour total volume was 51.0099 ETH, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately 196,424.30 DAI. Price action displayed a bearish bias through the first half of the session, before a late afternoon rally reversed the trend. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning hours, followed by consolidation in the final candle.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 04:30 ET, which marked a key inflection point. The pair found strong support at 3842.93 during a 00:30 ET candle, with rejection at 3885.69 in the early evening. A small doji at 06:00 ET indicated indecision. Price appeared to bounce off 3842.93 multiple times, suggesting a short-term floor. Resistance levels are forming at 3885.69 and 3901.06, with the former showing a strong rejection during a high-volume candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, Ethereum/Dai closed above the 20-period (3864.73) and 50-period (3860.82) moving averages, indicating a potential short-term reversal. For the daily chart, the 50-period (3872.01), 100-period (3855.63), and 200-period (3848.21) moving averages suggest a mixed signal, with price hovering near the 50-period line. The convergence of the 50- and 100-period averages may indicate a potential short-term breakout or consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover earlier in the session, with the line dipping below the signal line. However, a late rally saw the MACD return near neutral territory, with a histogram showing a narrowing of bearish momentum. The RSI crossed below 50 in the early morning, then rose back above it in the final hours, hinting at a potential reversal. It did not enter overbought territory, but the 66.19 reading at close suggests moderate bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved within the Bollinger Bands throughout the 24-hour window, with a slight contraction noted during the 05:00–06:00 ET period, indicating a potential low-volatility zone. The closing candle ended just below the upper band (3901.25), near the recent high of 3901.06. This suggests a potential retest of the upper band in the near term. The 20-period band width expanded slightly in the final hour, indicating renewed short-term volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:45 ET candle, coinciding with a significant move from 3815.01 to 3857.76. This suggests strong buying pressure during that period. The 22:30–00:00 ET timeframe saw a steady increase in volume with a corresponding price rise, suggesting confirmation rather than divergence. A divergence was noted around 03:30 ET where price dipped but volume remained low, indicating weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the Fibonacci retracement to the key 3827.48–3901.06 swing, the 38.2% (3858.01) and 61.8% (3871.39) levels were both tested. The 38.2% level saw brief rejection, while the 61.8% level coincided with the 24-hour close of 3870.55. This suggests the pair may find a near-term equilibrium around these levels before a potential breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

In light of the bearish engulfing pattern observed in the early morning session, a backtesting strategy was attempted to evaluate short-term performance using a close-to-close holding period. The strategy focused on identifying and acting on bearish engulfing candlestick formations in the Ethereum/Dai pair over a three-year period. However, the backtesting engine returned internal errors, preventing the generation of performance statistics such as P&L, hit-rate, or risk metrics. A manual calculation or engine bug fix is required to evaluate the strategy's efficacy. A potential workaround involves extracting the raw price series and performing a local in-house analysis to measure forward returns, pattern frequency, and overall strategy performance.