Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) - 2025-09-26

• ETHDAI opened at 4003.41, dropped to 3861.99, and closed at 3956.04 after 24 hours, with a 15-minute candle plunge of ~9% in early evening.
• Price action showed a strong bearish breakdown from key resistance, followed by a late-day recovery toward prior support levels.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions by early morning, while volume surged during the 15:45–18:45 ET recovery phase.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the early downtrend but contracted during consolidation near 3900–3950.
• A bullish hammer pattern formed at 3861.99, potentially signaling short-term support, though momentum remains mixed.

The Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) pair opened at 4003.41 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3956.04 the following day. Over the 24-hour period, the price ranged between 3861.99 and 4007.82. Total volume amounted to 160.66 ETH, while the notional turnover reached 617,837.17 DAI. The price action reflected a sharp bearish reversal in the first half of the session, followed by a partial rebound in the latter half.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period displayed a bearish breakdown from key resistance levels around 4000–4005, with a notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at 16:45–17:00 ET marking the start of the selloff. After hitting the low at 3861.99 on 2025-09-26 at 02:45 ET, the pair formed a bullish hammer candlestick, which may indicate temporary support. Additionally, a doji formed near 3905.07, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels appear to include 3900–3910, 3880–3890, and the 24-hour low at 3861.99, while resistance is likely to be retested around 3940–3950 and 3970–3980.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. The 50-period MA was at 3947.12, and the 20-period MA at 3958.31. The MACD turned positive in the late morning hours, indicating a potential short-term reversal in momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the early hours of the morning, signaling oversold conditions, but it has since moved back into neutral territory. This mixed signal suggests that while the near-term trend is bearish, there may be limited downside potential from current levels.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility was most evident between 16:45 and 19:45 ET, with the price breaching the lower Bollinger Band during the early stages of the selloff. The bands were wide during this period, reflecting increased uncertainty and aggressive selling pressure. As the price recovered toward the 3900–3950 range, volatility decreased, and the price moved closer to the middle of the Bollinger Band, suggesting a return to equilibrium. The current price sits just above the lower band, indicating that bearish pressure may still be present, but the market appears to be stabilizing.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 18:30–18:45 ET, with over 6.1 ETH traded, coinciding with a strong price rebound from the 3836.93 level. This volume surge confirmed the short-covering and buying interest. Conversely, the largest turnover was observed at 19:30–19:45 ET, with 5.25 ETH traded and 19,972 DAI in turnover, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum. Price and turnover appeared to align during the recovery phase but diverged slightly during the early morning consolidation, where price moved up without matching increases in turnover. This divergence could hint at weak conviction in the rebound, which traders may need to monitor.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute selloff from 4007.82 to 3861.99, the 38.2% level is at 3946.83, and the 61.8% level is at 3899.92. The price appears to have found some short-term support at the 61.8% level during the morning, which aligns with the 3899–3900 area. On a daily timeframe, Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 4007.82 to the low of 3861.99 will also be closely watched. These levels could serve as potential areas for either continuation or reversal, depending on the strength of the upcoming candle formations.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy would involve entering a long position when the price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3899.92) with confirmation from a bullish candlestick pattern and a positive RSI reading above 50. This approach aims to capture a potential rebound in the 3900–3950 consolidation range. A stop-loss could be placed below the 3880–3890 support, while the take-profit target would aim for the 3940–3950 resistance zone or beyond, depending on the strength of the reversal. Given the mixed momentum signals, this strategy would benefit from filtering for volume confirmation to avoid false breakouts. The use of a tight stop and a trailing take-profit could improve risk-adjusted returns in a volatile market like ETHDAI.