Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) – Strong Bullish Momentum Amid High Volume Surge

• ETHECTUSDT surged 10.3% over 24 hours, closing near a multi-week high at $19.98
• Strong bullish momentum confirmed by RSI above 60 and positive MACD divergence
• Volume spiked 4x average in the final 6 hours, supporting the breakout above $19.50
• Price remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages throughout the rally
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility surged, signaling potential consolidation ahead

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $18.82, reached a high of $20.62, and closed at $19.98 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,147,100.34 ETH, with a notional turnover of $22,705,564. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias, driven by a sharp rally from late evening into early morning.

The price structure revealed multiple bullish signals, including a strong engulfing pattern at $19.29 and a higher high/lower low formation from 03:45 ET onward. Key support levels held during the consolidation at $19.15–$19.20, while resistance broke decisively at $19.50–$19.60. A series of bullish harami patterns followed the breakout, indicating a potential pause in momentum.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 15-minute chart showed a clear separation between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with price consistently above both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, reinforcing the bullish trend. Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, with price reaching the upper band at $20.62 before retreating slightly, indicating a period of high volatility and possible short-term pullback.

The RSI climbed to 63 by 05:00 ET, confirming strong momentum, while MACD showed a positive divergence during the 03:45–05:00 ET rally. The 15-minute MACD histogram turned negative after the peak at $20.62, signaling potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Volume and Fibonacci Levels

Volume spiked significantly during the rally, with a 378% increase between 03:45 and 05:00 ET. The notional turnover also spiked, aligning with price action. A divergence between price and volume occurred after the 07:45 ET consolidation, suggesting potential short-term uncertainty.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key swing from $18.63 to $20.62 identified a 61.8% level at $19.97, closely matching the 12:00 ET close. This suggests a high probability of a pause or consolidation at this level before the next leg higher or a pullback.

The next 24 hours may see a test of the $20.00–$20.15 range as key resistance. A close above $20.20 could signal continued bullish momentum, while a drop below $19.85 may trigger a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $19.97. Investors should remain cautious of divergences in volume and RSI as potential early warning signs of a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a breakout above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the 20-period MA. A take-profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent swing low. Given the recent price behavior, this strategy would have been activated at 03:45 ET and closed out near $19.98. The strategy assumes that a sustained close above both moving averages indicates strong bullish momentum. However, traders should be mindful of the divergence seen in the MACD and RSI, which may reduce strategy accuracy in periods of overbought conditions.