Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price drifted from $15.78 to $15.90, forming a bullish structure with mixed momentum.
• Volume expanded in late-night hours, confirming a potential breakout.
• RSI hovered near neutral, with MACD showing narrowing convergence.
• Volatility expanded as price approached the 15.95 resistance, testing 61.8% fib levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting increased uncertainty ahead.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) has tested key support and resistance levels around $15.85 and $15.95, respectively. Price action revealed a bullish engulfing pattern near the $15.88 level on October 25 at 07:30 ET, followed by a bearish divergence in the early morning. A morning rally pushed the pair toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing low, with consolidation seen in the last 4 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (15.89) crossed above the 50SMA (15.88), hinting at a short-term bullish bias. The 50EMA is currently at 15.91, while the 200SMA on the daily chart sits at 15.83, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend remains intact, though a reversal could occur if resistance is breached.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has narrowed, signaling a potential flattening of momentum, with the MACD line at 0.05 and signal line at 0.03. RSI hovered around 52–54 throughout the day, remaining neutral and avoiding overbought or oversold territory. This suggests that the market is neither exhausted on the long side nor facing immediate distribution pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility as the pair approached the upper band at 15.92–15.94 during the day. Price has remained inside the upper band for much of the last 12 hours, suggesting that volatility is expanding in anticipation of a breakout or reversal. A close above 15.95 could trigger a stronger bullish signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours of October 25, with the highest 15-minute volume spike reaching 8,040.98 at 02:15 ET. This coincided with a price move from $15.96 to $15.93, suggesting increased conviction in the move. Notional turnover also increased, aligning with the price action and providing confirmation of a strong short-term trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute swing from $15.83 to $15.94 has seen the pair consolidate near the 61.8% retracement level (~$15.92). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader swing from $15.69 to $16.05 is at $15.93, which aligns with recent consolidation. A break above this level could push toward $16.05, while a breakdown could test $15.83 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy evaluated a momentum-based RSI crossover system using 70/30 overbought/oversold thresholds. Over the tested period, the cumulative return was -3.63%, with an annualized return of 9.30% and a maximum drawdown of 54.31%. The average trade return was 0.89%, with a win rate of ~20.3%, indicating that while the system captures small gains, it suffers from frequent losses. The low Sharpe ratio of 0.20 suggests poor risk-adjusted returns, likely due to high volatility and no stop-loss rules. This highlights the importance of incorporating additional risk controls and optimizing entry/exit criteria for real-world use.

Outlook & Risk

Looking ahead, Ethereum Classic/Tether is likely to test $15.95 in the next 24 hours. A confirmed close above this level may trigger further buying, while a pullback to $15.83 could rekindle short-term bearish sentiment. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and the absence of clear momentum signals could lead to indecision in price action.