Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) - 2025-10-27

• ETHEC/Tether (ETCUSDT) rose 6.63% in the last 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high.
• Momentum remained bullish in the second half of the day, with a sharp rebound from 16.36.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 10:15 PM ET, with volume spiking over 39,000 units in one 15-minute candle.
• RSI showed overbought conditions late in the session, while Bollinger Bands widened, signaling heightened uncertainty.
• On-balance volume and price moved in tandem during key upward moves, supporting the strength of the rally.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $16.43 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $16.92, dipped to a low of $16.36, and closed at $16.53 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-27. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 344,692.07, with a notional turnover of ~$5,661,405.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish bias from late evening, with a key breakout above the 16.79 level following a consolidation phase. A hammer-like candle formed at 00:15 ET, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern as price surged past the prior session’s high. The most significant bearish pressure appeared just before 8:30 AM ET, when price dropped sharply from 16.74 to 16.61. This move was counterbalanced by a large volume-positive rebound, forming a potential bottom reversal structure near 16.50. Notable support levels include 16.45–16.50 and 16.36–16.40, while key resistance is now at 16.65 and 16.79.

Moving Averages (15-Min Chart)

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish throughout the day, with price maintaining above the 50SMA after 10:30 PM ET. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA at 01:15 ET, forming a potential golden cross that could support further upside. Daily moving averages (50D, 100D, 200D) also showed a bullish bias, with price trading above all three for most of the session, confirming a medium-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive for most of the session, with a sharp upward divergence in the histogram from 10:15 PM to 4:15 AM ET, aligning with the price surge. The RSI crossed into overbought territory (above 70) at 01:30 ET, peaking at 78. This suggests potential exhaustion of the bullish move. However, RSI has yet to diverge from price, which implies continuation of the upward momentum is still possible.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility saw a significant expansion after 10:15 PM ET, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the increased trading range. Price closed near the upper band, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend. A contraction in the bands was observed early in the session, indicating a period of consolidation prior to the breakout. The mid-band at 16.60 serves as a dynamic support/resistance zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the late-night rally, with a single candle (22:15–22:30 ET) trading 39,379.5 units, the highest in the 24-hour period. Turnover increased proportionally, confirming the strength of the upward thrust. However, after 8:00 AM ET, volume began to normalize while price remained elevated, suggesting a shift in buying pressure. A divergence in volume and price may signal a potential correction, but the overall trend remains bullish.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 16.36–16.92 swing, key levels are 16.58 (38.2%), 16.70 (50%), and 16.83 (61.8%). Price is currently approaching the 61.8% level at 16.83, indicating a possible near-term ceiling. For the daily chart, the 16.36–16.79 swing highlights 16.53 as the 38.2% retracement level, aligning with the current closing price. A break above 16.83 could lead to a test of the 16.92 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming after a consolidation phase, confirmed by a 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent swing low (16.45), with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (16.83). This approach would align with the observed price structure and technical signals. Given the recent strength in volume and alignment with key Fibonacci and moving average levels, this strategy may offer a favorable risk/reward profile for the next 24 hours.