Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• Price dropped 4.3% in 24 hours, with a bearish close below key support at 20.0.
• Volatility expanded late in the session, with high volume confirming downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, but divergence between price and momentum suggests caution.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply as price drifted below the 20-period moving average.
• Turnover increased 30% in the last 6 hours, signaling heightened bearish participation.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $20.12 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $20.22 before closing at $19.83 by 12:00 ET on October 7. Total volume reached 349,816.98, with a notional turnover of $6,998,339.85 over the 24-hour period, showing elevated bearish participation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours reveals a key breakdown below 20.0 after a failed attempt to retest the 20.13–20.15 resistance cluster. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart around 19:45 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed at 20.13, signaling indecision prior to the breakdown. The price appears to be testing the next level of support at 19.77–19.8, with a possible test of 19.65 ahead if this level fails.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, confirming a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is holding above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating longer-term buyers are still active. However, with price now below the 20-period MA on the intraday chart, a continuation of the bearish bias seems probable.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory midday, confirming bearish momentum, and has continued to diverge from price as the decline accelerated. RSI hit oversold levels near 30–32 in the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, but bearish divergence between price and RSI implies caution. A failure to retrace above 19.94 may signal a deeper decline.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late hours of the session, with price action dropping sharply below the lower band by the time trading reached 15:15 ET. This expansion indicates a spike in volatility and a breakdown of the range. The price has remained below the lower band since the early afternoon, which typically suggests a continuation of the bearish move, though a bounce is possible as the RSI indicates oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly after 19:30 ET, coinciding with the breakdown below 20.0 and a sustained move toward 19.8. Notional turnover followed a similar trajectory, peaking in the late afternoon. Price and turnover moved in parallel during this phase, confirming the bearish move. However, in the final 3 hours, turnover outpaced price movement, suggesting a mix of panic selling and speculative shorting.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 20.13–19.83 decline, the 38.2% retracement level is at 19.96 and the 61.8% is at 19.92. Price has bounced off the 61.8% level twice in the last hour, suggesting a potential support area. A failure to hold above 19.92 could bring the 19.83 level into focus again.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on shorting ETC/USDT upon a bearish engulfing pattern forming below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with confirmation from a MACD crossover into negative territory. Given the recent breakdown and confirmation of the pattern around 19:45 ET, this setup aligns with the strategy's entry conditions. A stop-loss at 20.13 and a target at 19.65 could be considered. The volume confirmation and RSI divergence suggest the risk of a false breakdown is moderate, so hedging with a partial position or a tight stop may be appropriate.