Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• ETHECTUSDT declined sharply from $18.94 to $17.85 amid a high-volume sell-off in early ET.
• Momentum indicators show oversold RSI and a bearish MACD crossover.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a 15-minute Bollinger Band break below the lower band.
• Volume spiked 7.2x at the lows, but price failed to confirm a bullish reversal.
• Fibonacci levels at $17.93 (38.2%) and $17.62 (61.8%) may define near-term support.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $18.92 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, touched a high of $18.94, and a low of $17.85 before closing at $17.95 as of 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a total volume of 330,173.75 USD and a notional turnover of 18.40 USD. The price action was bearish, marked by a sharp drop driven by high-volume selling pressure in the overnight session.

Structure & Formations

Price action from the 15-minute candles revealed several significant patterns. The initial sell-off from $18.94 to $18.55 featured a dark cloud cover pattern, followed by a long bearish candle at $18.52. As the session progressed, a bearish engulfing pattern formed between $18.55 and $18.43, suggesting strong distribution. The final 15-minute candle at $17.95 showed a modest bounce but failed to form a bullish reversal, as a strong doji appeared at the lower end of the Bollinger Band.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 15-minute EMA-20 and EMA-50 were both in bearish alignment, with the 50-period line below the 20-period line. The daily chart showed a similar bearish trend, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs all descending. Volatility expanded sharply in the early hours of 2025-09-25, with price trading below the lower Bollinger Band for a brief period, indicating a possible exhaustion of the bearish move.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI indicator reached an oversold level of 28 near the 17.85 low, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, the MACD remained bearish with a strong crossover and negative histogram. The divergence between the RSI’s oversold condition and the MACD’s bearish signal suggests that while a short-term rebound may occur, the overall trend remains bearish unless a strong breakout above $18.30 occurs with high volume.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically at the $17.85 low, reaching 29,891.36 USD, nearly seven times the average 15-minute volume of the previous 24 hours. Notional turnover also rose significantly during this period. However, price failed to close above the previous candle, and the volume failed to confirm a bullish reversal. This divergence between volume and price action suggests that the selloff may not yet be complete.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $18.94 to $17.85, the 38.2% level is at $17.93 and the 61.8% level is at $17.62. These levels may serve as potential support zones in the next 24 hours. A break below $17.62 could indicate a deeper correction to the $17.20 level, especially if volume remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and divergences in the 15-minute chart, a backtesting strategy based on a short signal at a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold divergence appears plausible. The strategy would look to enter on a close below the $18.30 level, with a stop-loss above the $18.50 level. A target of $17.62 (61.8% Fib) and $17.20 (extension) would be appropriate for a 48-hour time horizon. This aligns with the technical indicators discussed and could be optimized further using historical data to assess win rate and risk/reward.