Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) - 2025-09-24

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) fell to $18.77 before rebounding slightly near $18.98 amid volatile 24-hour trading.
• Momentum shifted midday, with RSI hitting oversold and then overbought levels, signaling a potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply after a consolidation phase, indicating rising volatility and uncertain direction.
• Volume surged during the selloff but dropped afterward, hinting at possible exhaustion in the downward leg.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $18.85–18.91 as buying pressure increased in late trading hours.

24-Hour Summary and Opening Context

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $19.06 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $19.07 and a low of $18.77, and closed at $18.98 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total trading volume of 319,168.21 ETHC and a notional turnover of $5,965,128.82 over the 24-hour window. The price action reflected a sharp selloff early in the morning followed by a consolidation and partial recovery.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a key support zone forming around $18.77–$18.85, where a large bearish candle with a long lower wick suggested rejection at that level. Later in the session, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged between $18.85 and $18.91 as buying pressure returned. A doji formed at $18.97, indicating indecision. A notable swing high of $19.05 was formed in the afternoon, which could serve as a near-term resistance level if tested again.

Resistance and Support Levels (15-Min)

- Key resistance: $19.05 (swing high), $19.00 (previous consolidation peak)
- Key support: $18.90 (trend line base), $18.85 (rejection level)

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price during the morning selloff, signaling bearish momentum. The 20-period line then crossed back above the 50-period line in the late afternoon, indicating a potential short-term reversal. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) were not in immediate conflict but remained below the current price, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias if the recent swing high can be cleared.

The 12-period/26-period MACD crossed into positive territory in the late morning, confirming a shift in momentum. The RSI moved from oversold levels (<30) at $18.77 to overbought territory (>70) by $19.05, showing a rapid shift in sentiment. This suggests the market may be due for a consolidation phase or reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands were in a state of expansion during the selloff, reflecting increased volatility. The price hit the lower band at $18.77, indicating a moment of overselling. As the price recovered, it closed near the center of the bands at $18.98, suggesting the consolidation might continue. A sustained close above the upper band or below the lower band would be needed to confirm a breakout or breakdown scenario.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the morning selloff, with one candle (03:30 ET) printing a volume of 23,430.17 ETHC and a drop from $18.86 to $18.65. This suggests significant selling pressure. However, volume dropped off during the consolidation phase, and a divergence formed between the price and volume, suggesting weaker conviction in the upward move. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest notional turnover occurring during the selloff and a quieter period during the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements and Implications

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing low ($18.77) and the swing high ($19.05), the key levels for the 15-minute chart are:
- 23.6%: $18.93
- 38.2%: $18.88
- 50%: $18.91
- 61.8%: $18.85
- 78.6%: $18.80

These levels are expected to serve as dynamic areas of support and resistance. The price currently hovers near the 50% and 61.8% levels, suggesting a potential pullback could test the 78.6% level at $18.80 if bears regain control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would focus on the bullish engulfing pattern at $18.85–18.91 and the subsequent RSI bounce from oversold. A long entry could be triggered on a close above $18.90 with a stop loss below $18.85, targeting the 19.05 swing high. This setup could be validated using a 15-minute timeframe and would aim to capture a retracement in the bullish direction after a bearish consolidation phase. The strategy could be enhanced by incorporating a volume-based filter, favoring entries with increasing volume as confirmation of strength.