Market Overview for Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) on 2025-10-06

• ETHARS traded in a 15-min bearish range until a sharp drop from 6.95M to 6.86M in mid-day ET
• Price rebounded from 6.86M in late ET, forming a bullish wedge before a final 15-min breakout above 7.0M
• Volatility spiked in the final 4.5 hours, with over 0.9 volume, contrasting with otherwise muted turnover
• RSI approached overbought levels at 7.0M–7.1M, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking
• Bollinger Bands narrowed pre-ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakout phase

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 6,937,650 on October 5 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 7,116,272 before closing at 7,097,071 on October 6 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 6,853,584. Total volume traded was 4.157, and turnover reached approximately 29.63 billion ARS. The pair exhibited a late-ET breakout driven by high-impact 15-minute candles.

Structure & Formations

ETHARS displayed a bearish consolidation for most of the day until a sharp 6.95M–6.86M decline in mid-day ET. A bullish wedge formed during the afternoon as the price rebounded and gradually approached 7.0M. The final 15-minute candle opened at 6,987,748 and closed at 7,097,071, forming a bullish engulfing pattern after a long consolidation phase. Key support levels include 6.86M and 6.85M, with 6.95M acting as a critical psychological resistance-turned-support. The price has not tested below 6.85M in the past 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned around 6.95M–6.97M, indicating a neutral-to-bullish bias. The 50-period line has been crossed by the price during the final 4.5 hours, suggesting a potential trend reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 6.92M, with the 200-period MA at 6.88M, forming a positive crossover and supporting the recent bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD has been in a bullish crossover for the past 3 hours, with the histogram turning positive. The RSI reached levels above 75 in the final hour, signaling overbought conditions. However, the divergence between price action and RSI is not strong enough to confirm a reversal. Momentum appears to have accelerated during the breakout, with potential for a brief consolidation at 7.1M or 7.05M before a possible retest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 6.94M–6.96M during the early morning, followed by a significant expansion as the price broke above 7.0M. The upper band currently sits at 7.12M, with the lower band at 6.83M. ETHARS is currently at the upper band, indicating a period of high volatility. The breakout appears to have been supported by increased volume and a narrowing of the band width prior to the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was muted for most of the day, averaging below 0.02 per 15-minute candle. However, in the last 4.5 hours, volume spiked with over 0.9 total volume, concentrated in 15-minute candles that broke key levels. Notional turnover also increased, particularly in the 7.0M–7.1M range. No notable divergence between volume and price action was observed; the breakout appears confirmed by both.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the move from 6.95M to 6.86M saw a 38.2% retest at 6.91M, followed by a 61.8% retest at 6.94M. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the recent 6.85M–7.12M move sits at 6.96M, which coincides with current short-term resistance. The price currently sits above the 78.6% retracement level of the 15-minute swing, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position on ETHARS when the 15-minute RSI crosses above 60, the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, and the volume increases by more than 50% from the previous 15-minute candle. A stop-loss is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous 15-minute swing, and a take-profit is set at the upper Bollinger Band. The strategy assumes increased volume confirms the breakout and RSI momentum sustains the move. This hypothesis aligns with today’s late-ET breakout, where all three indicators supported a long entry.