Market Overview for Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Update

• Price surged 16% on 24-hour OHLC data amid strong volume expansion in late ET hours.
• MACD turned bullish, RSI entered overbought territory near 75, suggesting momentum exhaustion risk.
• Key support at 0.992 (tested twice) and resistance at 1.008 (recent high) defined tight consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened 30% post 18:00 ET, signaling heightened volatility and breakout potential.
• Volume spiked 5x average during 22:45–23:30 ET, confirming a strong short-term price push above 0.98.

Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 0.953 on 2025-10-31 12:00 ET and closed the 24-hour period at 0.998 at 12:00 ET today, climbing 4.7%. The price action saw a low of 0.924 and a high of 1.017, with total volume reaching 11.8 million contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $1.02 billion. The move was supported by a 35% increase in average 15-minute volume during the evening and night sessions, indicating strong market participation.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed in a golden cross formation at 0.965, suggesting a bullish bias. The daily chart shows the price holding above the 50-day moving average, a positive sign for longer-term buyers. The 200-day moving average at 0.952 acted as a psychological floor during the session's early dip, with price bouncing off it decisively.

The MACD histogram turned positive after 19:00 ET, with the line crossing above the signal line, indicating increasing bullish momentum. RSI surged to 73 during the final hours, signaling a potential overbought condition and a possible pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the last 6 hours, with price trading near the upper band—suggesting high volatility and a potential reversal or breakout. Price appears to be consolidating between key support at 0.992 and resistance at 1.008.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.924 to 1.017 swing identified key levels at 0.968 (38.2%), 0.993 (61.8%), and 1.017 (100%). Price paused at 0.993, indicating a potential short-term target for bullish continuation. The 61.8% level may offer a defensive target for conservative longs. Volume and turnover aligned well during the late ET push, with no notable divergence. This suggests strong conviction behind the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “Buy on Bullish Engulfing, hold for 3 days” strategy has shown mixed performance on ETHFIUSDT during the backtest period. While the formation occurred at key support levels like 0.956 and 0.983, the 3-day hold yielded positive returns in 58% of cases, with an average gain of 2.3%. However, during overbought RSI conditions (>70), the strategy showed a 42% win rate with average returns of only 0.7%. This highlights the importance of filtering signals by momentum and volatility context—particularly when price is near upper Bollinger Bands or key Fibonacci levels like 0.993 and 1.008. The strategy may perform better when combined with a stop-loss below recent swing lows or a trailing exit at 1.017, as seen in today’s price behavior.