Market Overview: Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) – 2025-11-09

Summary
• ETHFIUSDT traded in a 0.92–0.99 range with strong bullish momentum post-0.95.
• Volatility spiked in the afternoon as price surged above 0.96, closing near 0.975.
• On-chain volume surged after 14:30 ET, suggesting accumulation and potential breakout.

Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 0.942 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at 0.975 by 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.991 and a low of 0.92. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 8,263,162.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $799,214,478.20. The price trended upward from midday onwards, forming a bullish continuation pattern.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bullish trend with a key support level forming around 0.94–0.95 and a resistance level around 0.96–0.97. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged after 14:30 ET, with a high close near 0.991. A doji formed near 0.975–0.98, signaling possible consolidation. A key breakout above 0.98 may lead to a retest of 1.00, though a pullback to 0.95–0.96 could trigger further buying.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with price trading above both, suggesting continued upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with price well above the 200-day MA, indicating a strong long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive around 14:30 ET and has remained above the signal line, showing strong momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory (>70) after 15:00 ET, suggesting a potential pullback may occur. However, the sustained volume suggests a possible continuation above 0.98.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion after 14:30 ET, with price breaking out above the upper band. This indicates a high volatility environment and a strong bullish phase. Price remains above the 1.5σ level, suggesting further upside potential but with increased risk of a mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 14:30 ET, particularly in the 14:30–15:30 ET window, aligning with the price breakout above 0.98. Turnover spiked during this period, indicating strong participation and accumulation. A divergence between price and volume appears unlikely, as both metrics confirm the bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart include 0.96 (38.2%), 0.97 (61.8%), and 0.98 (78.6%). The price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times and is currently consolidating near the 78.6% level. A break above 0.98 could target the 1.00 level as the next Fibonacci extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest would analyze the historical performance of the ETHFIUSDT pair around the first close above 0.955 level. Once the correct ticker symbol is provided (e.g., ETHFIUSDT.BINANCE), a full price history can be retrieved, and the event detection can be automated. For each event, the post-event returns over various timeframes (1, 3, 5, 10, 20 days) can be calculated. Additionally, the optimal holding period, drawdown risks, and volatility patterns can be analyzed. This approach would provide data-driven insights into the profitability of the strategy and potential risk management thresholds.