Market Overview for ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply after an early morning high of 1.531 to a low of 0.085, closing at 1.191 by 12:00 ET.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions with RSI hitting sub-30 levels in the last 24 hours.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the price collapse, confirming a bearish reversal pattern.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before the sharp selloff, followed by a strong volatility expansion.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support near 1.13–1.16 and resistance at 1.22–1.25.

The ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) pair opened at 1.512 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.531 before plummeting to a 24-hour low of 0.085. It closed at 1.191 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 222.4 million, while notional turnover reached approximately $330 million. A massive bearish reversal was confirmed by strong volume during the selloff.

The price movement resembles a large bearish engulfing pattern that began in the early hours of October 10 and continued through October 11. Key support levels appear to be forming around the 1.16–1.18 range, based on repeated rejections in the latter half of the 24-hour window. Resistance levels are expected near 1.22 and 1.25, based on Fibonacci retracements from the 0.085 low and 1.47–1.53 range. The 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show bearish divergence, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line.

MACD showed a bearish crossover and a large negative histogram after the price dropped below 1.19. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 for most of the last 8 hours, indicating a potential bounce. However, this oversold condition has not yet translated into a reversal. Bollinger Bands were compressed before the selloff, indicating low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion that suggests a move into higher volatility. Price is currently trading near the lower band, which may provide short-term support.

Volume and turnover spiked dramatically after the 0.085 low was reached, reinforcing the bearish breakout. However, the volume has since normalized slightly, suggesting exhaustion in the current bearish move. A divergence in price and volume during the last 3 hours suggests a potential pause or consolidation may be forming. If price can hold above 1.16–1.18, it could signal a short-term bottom forming, but a breakdown below that would likely target 1.10–1.05.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI below 30 and a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume. A stop-loss would be placed above the recent high of the engulfing pattern, and a take-profit target would be set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level, typically 38.2–50% of the prior bullish swing. This strategy would require high volume confirmation during the bearish move to filter out false signals. Given the recent setup, a similar trigger could be in place, suggesting a potential short opportunity with defined risk.