Market Overview for Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Price opened at 0.9995 and closed near 0.9999 after a steady push to 1.0002.
• Volatility spiked late in the session with a strong close above 1.0.
• Momentum suggests potential for a breakout above key resistance at 1.0.
• Volume surged in the final hours, confirming bullish price action.
• RSI and MACD both indicate growing bullish momentum.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9995 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.0002, and closed at 1.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 185,628,909.0 with a turnover of approximately 185,628,909.0 (value in USDT, assuming 1:1 ratio for stablecoin).

The price moved in a tight range early in the session, forming small bullish and bearish consolidation patterns before a strong reversal emerged after midnight. A key breakout above 1.0000 and a final close above that level signals growing demand for the stablecoin peg. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern formed around 06:45 ET, signaling a likely shift in momentum. Key support and resistance levels appear to be forming around 0.9995 (support) and 1.0000–1.0002 (resistance).

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion as price surged past the upper band after 03:00 ET. This suggests an increase in volatility and potential for a continuation of the upward trend. The RSI crossed into overbought territory around 04:00 ET and remained elevated, suggesting sustained buying pressure. MACD showed a strong bullish crossover earlier in the session, and the histogram expanded as the trend intensified. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish and aligned with the price action, reinforcing the trend.

Volume activity spiked significantly in the early hours of the morning, especially between 04:00 ET and 07:00 ET, with large notional turnover volumes exceeding 10 million USDT in several 15-minute intervals. This volume confirmed the price breakout above 1.0000 and provided strong validation for the move. However, price and turnover diverged slightly in the final 15-minute candle at 12:00 ET, where the close was slightly lower than the high. This could signal a potential short-term correction or consolidation.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed price tested the 61.8% level around 0.9999 before breaking out above 1.0000. The 61.8% level has now become a potential support level, and the 100% extension lies at approximately 1.0004, which may be the next target if the momentum continues. Daily chart levels also show a possible continuation of the bullish trend if 1.0000 is maintained.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a momentum-driven approach that combines RSI overbought conditions with volume confirmation and Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, the strategy would enter long positions when RSI crosses above 60, volume surges by at least 200% compared to the 4-hour average, and price is near a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. Stop-loss is placed just below a key support level or the 50-period moving average, while take-profit is set at the 100% Fibonacci extension or the upper Bollinger Band.

Based on the 24-hour analysis, this strategy would have triggered multiple long entries, particularly around 04:00 ET and 06:00 ET, where RSI and volume both signaled strong momentum. The strategy may be suitable for traders seeking to capture stablecoin peg arbitrage or momentum-driven rallies in synthetic stablecoins like USDe.