Market Overview for Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT): 2025-10-02 to 2025-10-03

• Price action consolidated within a tight range of $1.0002–$1.0007, with a 24-hour close near the upper bound.
• RSI and MACD showed muted momentum, suggesting a low-energy trading session with no clear directional bias.
• Volume surged during early overnight hours, but notional turnover declined in the final 6 hours, signaling reduced participation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:15 ET, followed by a trend resumption around 05:00 ET, suggesting short-term volatility.
• Bollinger Bands contracted near $1.0004 during midday consolidation, indicating potential for a breakout in either direction.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at $1.0006 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.0003 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $1.0007 and a low of $0.9993 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 75.6 million, while notional turnover was approximately $75.6 million, reflecting moderate liquidity.

The price action remained range-bound for much of the session, with key support forming around $1.0002–$1.0003 and resistance at $1.0005–$1.0007. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:15 ET (2025-10-02), signaling a potential reversal from a brief bullish move. However, a bullish resumption began around 05:00 ET (2025-10-03), where price retested and held above $1.0002, suggesting resilience in the peg.

MACD displayed a flat histogram, indicating weak momentum, while RSI fluctuated between 40–60, reinforcing a sideways trend. Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly around $1.0004 during midday trading, suggesting a low-volatility phase and the potential for an imminent breakout. A Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $1.0004 acted as a key psychological barrier, offering a possible target for a short-term bounce or retest.

The 20-period EMA remained just below the 50-period EMA, reinforcing the neutral to slightly bearish tone. The 50-period EMA at $1.00047 could offer support should the price retrace, but a break below that level could trigger further depreciation to $1.0001–$1.0002. Over the next 24 hours, a break above $1.0006 could indicate renewed peg strength, but traders should remain cautious of liquidity gaps and peg slippage risks amid low participation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position when price closes above the $1.00047 (50-period EMA) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the $1.0002 support and a take-profit at $1.0006–$1.0007. Conversely, a short entry could be triggered on a close below the EMA with a stop above $1.0005–$1.0006 and a target at $1.0002–$1.0001. This strategy leverages the observed EMA crossover and Bollinger Band contraction to capture potential breakouts.