Market Overview: Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) — 2025-09-23

• Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) trades within a tight 1.0007–1.0012 range, consolidating after a morning rally.
• Price action shows a potential bearish reversal near 1.0012, with a key support at 1.0008.
• Volume remains elevated during Asian and European sessions, with lower turnover during U.S. hours.
• RSI hovers near neutral levels, suggesting no immediate overbought/oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands narrow mid-day, signaling a potential breakout or continuation of consolidation.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 1.0009 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.0012 and a low of 1.0007 before closing at 1.001 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 303,875,566.0 and a notional turnover of ~$304,021,314 over the 24-hour period. The price remains in a narrow range, with volume surging during late-night Asian and early European trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period reveals a tight trading range between 1.0007 and 1.0012, with key support at 1.0008 and resistance at 1.0012. The price briefly tested 1.0012 during the early hours of 2025-09-23, forming a potential bearish reversal pattern with a lower high and higher low. Around 03:00–04:00 ET, price briefly declined to 1.0007 before rebounding, suggesting a potential bullish continuation. A doji formed near 1.0011 during the 05:30–06:00 ET timeframe, signaling indecision. These formations highlight the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers within a stable range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages closely track the price, indicating a sideways trend with no clear directional bias. The 20-period MA is currently at ~1.00093, while the 50-period MA sits at ~1.00092, showing minimal divergence. The 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA twice during the early morning hours, hinting at a possible short-term bullish signal. However, the overall flat trend suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst to break the range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line and signal line remain close to zero throughout the 24-hour period, indicating a lack of significant momentum. The histogram shows minor bullish and bearish impulses, but no sustained divergence. RSI fluctuates between 45 and 55, remaining within neutral territory. It briefly touched 60 near 02:15 ET and 59 near 06:30 ET, suggesting a mild overbought condition. However, the lack of a corresponding price reversal implies the rally was not strong enough to trigger a breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a slight contraction during the middle of the trading day, particularly around 06:00–09:00 ET, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price remained within the bands throughout, with the upper band reaching 1.0012 and the lower band touching 1.0007. The middle band sits at ~1.0009, with price frequently hovering around it. The narrow band width during the mid-day period indicates reduced volatility, while the expansion at the start and end of the day signals increased trading activity and volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning and late night hours, with the highest volume occurring between 02:15–04:30 ET and again from 09:15–11:45 ET. The highest notional turnover was recorded during the 02:45–03:15 ET timeframe, reaching ~$30 million. During the U.S. trading hours (12:00–16:00 ET), both volume and turnover declined, indicating reduced liquidity and trader activity. No major price-volume divergences were observed, suggesting price action is broadly confirmed by volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent swing from 1.0007 to 1.0012, the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements align with current price levels at ~1.0009 and ~1.00097, respectively. The 61.8% retracement sits at 1.00106, a level where the price briefly held during mid-day trading before retreating. These levels could act as potential support or resistance in the coming sessions. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the previous range high and low show similar patterns, with the 50% level at 1.00095 currently acting as a key pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and exiting when the RSI exceeds 60 or when the 20-period MA crosses back below the 50-period MA. Additionally, a stop-loss is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent 20/50 MA crossovers and RSI approaching overbought levels, a trader using this strategy would have entered a long position earlier in the day but would have exited due to RSI nearing 60. The strategy aligns with the observed price behavior, though the flat trend may limit the potential for large gains unless a breakout occurs. Testing this strategy on the recent 15-minute data would offer insights into its efficacy in low-volatility, range-bound conditions.